Colts 2013 free agents: Dwight Freeney

Back in 2002, then Colts president Bill Polian pulled off one of the many master strokes of his career. Nobody would have guessed it (although Chris Burman claimed he did, later admitting to peeking at the cards), but the Colts "reached" for Dwight Freeney with the 11th pick. 

Despite his awesome college production and 4.47 forty, many teams and the media were not sold on Freeney because of his modest height (6007, same as me). Eleven seasons, 107.5 sacks, 44 forced fumbles and seven Pro Bowls later, it appears that Polian was right.

But Polian is long gone, and so is the defensive system associated with his coaches. The new Colts regime re-signed Freeney to a one-year contract last season in what appeared to be a trial run in their distinctly 3-4 flavored defense. Freeney was immediately installed in what they call the "Rush" position, basically a 3-4 ROLB who shifts to RDE when there are 4-plus linemen.

It did not work out well. Better than many people believe, but not great. Fans noticed that Freeney had an uncharacteristically low five sacks, but they may not have seen his team-high 34 hurries (Robert Mathis was a distant second with just 19). Run defense was never a strong suit with Freeney, but he completely disappeared in 2012, record just eight tackles in the run game. He was rarely called upon to cover receivers in his new position, but has shown some limited adeptness there.

Will other teams bid for him?: Absolutely. While Freeney's one season as a hybrid didn't really show him at his best, the conventional wisdom is that he could easily be a double-digit sackman again in a mostly 4-3 defense, and that his effectiveness and longevity would be further enhanced by a role as a pass-rushing specialist. He will have lots of lucrative offers to choose from.

Chances he'll be back: Slim. Although he was still arguably the Colts best pass rusher last season (and even with him, the position is a crying need), it looks like Freeney's days as a Colt are about over. He will command a huge contract on the open market, and the Colts probably will not be willing to pay him the kind of money he wants (and deserves) if he's not a complete fit in their scheme. Besides,.its another link to the Polian era the new management would not mind severing. And from his perspective, it would probably be nice to end his career where he started it, but it would probably be better to build his case for the Hall of Fame (not to mention make more money) in a more friendly system. 

Colts 2013 free agents: Winston Justice

Winston Justice has largely been the unwilling recipient of the problems associated with other people's flawed perceptions. A huge man (6061/319) with the wingspan of a California condor and the feet of a dancer, fans, scouts and coaches expected him to step in and be a cornerstone NFL left tackle after a standout career at USC. He was drafted by the Eagles in the second round of the 2006 draft. They, like many teams, considered him in the first.

But it didn't work out that way. Manhandled by Osi Umeniyora in his first game, Justice earned the ire of Philadelphia's quick-to-judge, slow-to-forget fans, and even some teammates. But the fact was that Justice just wasn't ready for the NFL as quickly as he and his coaches thought he would be.

As time went on, Justice started at right tackle and acquitted himself well. Even Umeniyora later praised him as a player. But injuries and the resentment of Eagles fans who didn't think such a lofty draft pick and salary were deserved by a mere "right tackle," basically chased him out of town.

The Eagles traded him and their 2013 sixth rounder to the Colts for their 2013 sixth rounder. Nobody would have guessed it at the time, but the Colts had a much better season than the Eagles, so they actually moved up 20 spots in the sixth round to take Justice. Another master stroke by Colts GM Ryan Grigson, one of the people who help decide to draft Justice in Philadelphia.

Justice rewarded Grigson's faith with some good, if not excellent, play. A much better pass blocker than run blocker, Justice allowed on three sacks and six hits. He did give up 26 hurries (which is disproportionally high compared to the number of sacks he gave up), but the eye-ball test indicates that some of those hurries would have hits or even sacks had Justice not been so dogged in his second and third efforts.

On the minus side, he was no better than adequate as a run blocker, and was not immune to penalties.

Even more troubling was that injuries caught up with him again, this time it was concussions and a shoulder injury in the heat of the playoff race. But if the play of first young veteran Jeff Linkenbach and then street free agent Brad Sowell in his place is any indication of Justice's worth, he deserves MVP consideration.

Will other teams bid for him?: Maybe, talented tackles are rare. But Justice has a reputation not just for being injury-prone, but also not all that tough.

Chances he'll be back: Good, if he's healthy. Aside from left tackle Anthony Castonzo, Justice is the most talented offensive lineman the Colts have (and he was arguably more consistent until he was injured). If his head and shoulder check out, Justice could easily start at right tackle again, or serve as a swing backup.

ColtPlay contest

The first person to tell me who the next Colts free agent to be featured in ColtPlay (it's not random, there is a system) will receive their choice of one of my two recent books, Fighter (a biography of GSP, the UFC fighter) or Gangland (a look at how drug cartels are endangering the future of Mexico).

Just comment below.

Colts 2013 free agents: Jeff Linkenbach

Note: At this point, Jeff Linkenbach is a restricted free agent. 

When the Colts signed Jeff Linkenbach as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati in 2010, the book on him was pretty straightforward. He was a try-hard guy, lacking in footwork, who had problems with speed rushers, but could generally handle bull-rushers well. ColtPlay's prediction at the time was that he could well eke out a living as a backup at right tackle and both guard spots. 

And that's what the Colts intended. But injuries, poor play and poor planning have led to Linkenbach playing in all 48 regular-season games since then, starting 28. He's played every line position except center.

ColtPlay hates to be harsh, but Linkenbach has been plainly overmatched at tackle, right or left. His problem with speed rushers hasn't gotten any better, and the bull rushers in the NFL are much stronger than the ones he faced in the Big East. Fans and even media have been cruel in their criticism. TV analyst Chris Collinsworth even called him "the weakest Linkenbach" on a nationally broadcast game.

In 2012, Linkenbach made five starts at left guard, four starts at right tackle and also played a few downs at right guard and left tackle. At tackle, he was a liability. On 191 pas plays, he allowed four sacks, three hits and 17 hurries. That means he was beaten on 12.57 percent of every pass play he blocked for (for comparison, right tackle Winston Justice was beaten on just 7.34 percent). At guard, Linkenbach allowed no sacks, but five hits and 16 hurries, for a 6.30 failure rate. That might sound good, but guards usually fare far better than tackles on that measure — Linkenbach's score is not as terrible as the one he had at tackle, but it still isn't very good. What makes it all worse is that Linkenbach is considered a better pass blocker than run blocker.   

Will other teams bid for him?: Maybe, but they won't bid much. Linkebach's a good try-hard guy with experience at four of five line positions.  

Chances he'll be back: Actually, pretty good. The Colts O-line needs a huge overhaul. At this point, only one of the five starting positions is held by a player considered a long-term solution (left tackle Anthony Castonzo). While Linkebach was terrible at tackle, he was actually as good or better than the other guys the Colts trotted out there at guard. Don't read that as saying he was good; just above par for the group he was in. There's an old football truism (that ColtPlay believes) that assumes that consistency is very important for offensive line play. It proffers that linemen who have played together for a while develop a superior level of communication — both spoken and tacit — that allows them to play above their talent level. So while the Colts are desperately looking for offensive line prospects to build around, they very well might invest a few bucks in a guy like Linkenbach who can be an effective backup at both guard spots and has played with the Colts for a few years now. But he should come with a consumer warning label: Please do not start at tackle, dangerous situations could develop.   

Colts 2013 free agents: Cassius Vaughn

Note: At this point, Cassius Vaughn is a restricted free agent.

2012 stats: 58 tackles, 8 assists, 1-3-1 interceptions, 9 passes defensed, 10-209-0 kick returns 

Cassius Vaughn was one of what seemed like several dozen cornerback prospects the Colts brought in at the start of the season in a desperate attempt to find anyone who could play the position.

An undrafted signee by the Broncos in 2010, he had a promising rookie season on special teams. He won the third corner job in 2011 camp, but was later bumped down due to inconsistent play. Denver's 2012 housecleaning included trading him the the Colts straight up for superfluous fullback Chris "the wrong" Gronkowski.

In his one season as a Colt, he was up and down. Pressed into service early due to injuries, poor play and general confusion at the position, Vaughn ended up starting 11 games, playing both sides and the slot.

Vaughn was so-so in coverage. He had most of his problems deep; being beaten for five touchdowns and  flagged nine times, but was one of the Colts' better cover men in short and intermediate range. Unfortunately, he saved one of his worst games for the national stage, getting burned by Baltimore's Anquan Boldin in the Wild Card game.

Vaughn was a better run defender than his size would make you think, but he's no Antoine Winfield. 

He made something of a name for himself as a special-teamer with Denver, but did not shine there as a Colt. A so-so kick returner, he was replaced at the position, and he didn't do a heck of a lot on coverage that I can recall except get flagged twice.

Although Vaughn has been in the league three seasons now, I still think of him as a prospect who has shown flashes of greatness, inconsistency and, sometimes, bone-headed play. Thrown into some high-pressure situations throughout his career, he has had his trials, but has also shown resilience and talent.

Will other teams bid for him?: Some team could fall in love with his versatility and promise, but I doubt it. If the Colts tender him a reasonable contract offer, it won't give them any compensation (because Vaughn was not drafted), but it would give them the right to match.

Chances he'll be back: About 50-50, but it depends on how things shake out. Despite all the new faces (or maybe because of them), the Colts are still in flux at cornerback. Vontae Davis, for whom the team traded a second-round pick, is definitely staying. But two of the Colts' other top corners, Jerraud Powers and Darius Butler, are unrestricted free agents. Although both would probably re-sign if the price is right, the Colts may not be able to retain them both, even though they have lots of room under the cap. The team also has some prospects it likes at the position, most notably Josh Gordy, Justin King and Teddy Williams, but they hardly seem ready for prime time. If either Powers or Butler departs, the Colts will probably retain Vaughn because of his starting experience. But if they both stay, the team may well look at younger options at fourth corner.

Colts 2013 free agents: Donnie Avery

2012 stats: 60-781-3 receiving, 4-90 rushing

When the Colts signed Donnie Avery last offseason, the obvious question was: Which Donnie Avery were they getting? When he was drafted, Avery was a lightning-quick speed receiver who was a bit sloppy in every aspect of his game. Then he suffered an ACL injury, was cut by the Rams and showed up with the Titans looking like a stumble-bum who couldn't catch a cold.

The truth is that the Colts got neither. But what they did get was much closer to the first option. Although Avery didn't show the speed and crispness of his first two seasons, he looked a little smarter and a whole lot tougher than he did then. He looked very little like the Titan we'd all rather forget.

Avery appeared in all 16 regular-season games, and starting 15 of them (and the Wild Card game). In fact, he played more downs than any Colt except Andrew Luck, Anthony Castonzo, Mike McGlynn and Reggie Wayne.

He showed some flashes of greatness — like when he caught the game-winning touchdown pass on fourth down with no time left to beat the Lions — but was generally an average starter at best. Luck had a 73.5 quarterback rating throwing to him, due in a large part to the fact that Avery caught just 53.57 percent of his passes, and dropped 12 of them. He was particularly uncertain of deep routes, catching just six of 25 attempts over 20 yards for no scores with four drops.

As the season went on, Avery was still out there on virtually every offensive play, but more and more passes that might have gone his way were going instead towards the Colts' rookies like TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill (not to mention tight ends Dwane Allen and Coby Fleener).

There are a couple of other concerns when it comes to Avery's value to the team. He doesn't play on special teams, and he's less comfortable in the slot than he outside, reducing his versatility.

Will other teams bid for him?: Probably, but not many. They will be aware of the same concerns the Colts have with Avery. And, if the Colts want to retain him, they would probably have to pay a significant amount more to pry him from a good situation he has there.

Chances he'll be back: Not good. Although Avery did much more than most observers expected, he's been eclipsed by Hilton, and Brazill is not far behind. Both of them are returners of note, and neither has any problem playing the slot. And since new offensive coordinator is adding more West Coast elements to the attack, the Colts are likely to look for receivers who specialize in getting yards after the catch, and that was Avery's weakest point in 2012. Even if the Colts don't draft a wide receiver, Avery would face a stiff training-camp battle for the fourth receiver spot from Griff Whalen — a favorite of both Luck and Hamilton. And there are few, if any fifth receivers who don't contribute on special teams.

Colts 2013 free agents

ColtPlay is back ... again ... can't say for how long. But enough about me; let's get to those free agents.

Unrestricted free agents

QB Drew Stanton
HB Melwelde Moore
WR Donnie Avery
WR Austin Collie
T Winston Justice
T Tony Hills
DE Fili Moala
NT Anthony Johnson
OLB Jamaal Westerman
OLB Dwight Freeney
ILB Moise Fokou
CB Jerraud Powers
CB Darius Butler
P Pat McAfee

Restricted free agents

T Jeff Linkenbach
G Seth Olsen
ILB AJ Edds

CB Cassius Vaughn

Exclusive-rights free agents

HB Deji Karim
G Joe Reitz
NT Martin Tevaseu
CB Josh Gordy