Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Updating the Eric Foster situation

Colts president Bill Polian has decided that since the police are not pressing charges against Foster, the Colts will not discipline him either.

While I hope he's innocent, I don't think people make those kinds of claims even when there is a potential for financial gain very often.

At this point, at least, it doesn't look like he needs replacing. But the situation bears watching.

Dreaming

Things I’d like from the draft, but almost certainly won’t get:

A quarterback with real upside, like Fordham’s John Skelton

A quarterback with excellent athletic ability who can confound defenses from a variety of positions and run the scout team for when the Colts play against a running quarterback or a team that employs the wildcat formation, like Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards

A big, bruising halfback, like Wayne State’s Joique Bell

A real fullback, like Maryland’s Cory Jackson

A tight end who’s not a pumped-up flanker or converted fullback, like Kansas State’s Jerod Mastrud

A two-gap defensive tackle, like Central Florida’s Torrell Troup

A truly blazing return man, like Lousiana State’s Trindon Holliday

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Foster

Like a lot of Colts fans, I’m really bummed out by the Eric Foster situation.

Keep in mind that this is the team that once cut Ed Johnson for a joint. If indeed this is a truthful accusation, I expect Foster to be an ex-Colt.

Unfortunately, Foster was the Colts’ most effective defensive tackle last year, and would definitely need replacing.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Latest mock

1/31 Jerry Hughes DE TCU
(6016/255/4.65c) 32 TK, 26 AT, 16.5-78 TFL, 11.5-72 SK, 6 PBU, 2 FF, 1-0-0 FR
Why: He's a great pass-rushing prospect and a good kid

2/63 Jared Veldheer T Hillsdale
(6081/312/5.06c)
Why: Just look at him!

3/94 Alterraun Verner CB UCLA
(5101/189/4.52c) 51 TK, 21 AT, 5-7 TFL, 5-158-1 INT, 4 PBU, 1-0-1 FR
Why: Awesome, awesome kid who's a great athlete and a productive corner.

4/129 Chris DeGeare G Wake Forest
(6035/325/5.12c)
Why: Another good guy who brings size and technique

5/162 Deji Karim HB Southern Illinois
(5085/209/4.40pd) 240-1,694-18 RU, 17-212-1 REC, 14-433-1 KR
Strong little back and a legitimate retun specialist.

7/238 Damaso Munoz OLB Rutgers
(5105/221/4.49pd) 36 TK, 45 AT, 8.5-29 TFL, 3-12 SK, 2-35-0 INT, 2 FF, 4-0-0 FR, 1-35-1 KR
Many teams see him as a safety, but I like him as an OLB.

7/240 Mike Caussin TE James Madison
(6052/252/4.77pd) 25-438-4 REC, 5-59-0 KR
You knew I'd have a small-school guy on here, besides he's a great guy.

7/246 Cornelius Brown CB UTEP
(5107/198/4.59c/4.46pd) 31 TK, 10 AT, 2-6 TFL, 16 PBU, 1 FF, 2-49-0 KR
Awesome movement skills and his nickname is "cornbread."

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Update

The big news in Coltland these days is probably the release of Chad Simpson. I was surprised. Say what you will about him as a returner. While his boom-or-bust style didn’t always endear him to fans, at least he caught the ball, and his numbers certainly weren’t bad (47-1,087-1 last season for a 23.13 average, 53-1,242-1 career for 23.43). But I liked him as an extra halfback.

Considering the injury histories of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart, it makes sense to have a capable fourth halfback. To cut Simpson in favour of Hart mystifies me. Over the last two years, the pair played about the same amount, but check out their numbers:

Rushing
Simpson: 30-147-3 (4.90 average)
Hart: 28-79-1 (2.82)

Receiving
Simpson 6-31-1 (5.20)
Hart 6-72-0 (12.00)

But keep in mind that Hart had the luxury of playing most of his snaps in blowouts with Manning at the wheel, while Simpson played most of his in the hard times when Curtis Painter was leading the team. People tell me hart is a better blocker and special-teamer, but I don’t see it. If he has an edge in either case, I’d say it’s too slight to be worthwhile.

So, in my opinion, the Colts cut a superior halfback and serviceable returner with 4.40 speed for an inferior halfback with no return ability and a 4.69 forty before he shredded his ACL.

Fine. But the Colts still need a fourth halfback. I know they like Southern Illinois’ Deji Karim, and could also be interested in Kentucky’s Alphonso Smith, but it’s a total crap shoot to see if those guys are better than Simpson or not.

• Daniel Muir and Melvin Bullitt signed their one-year tenders. That means they are on probation for their jobs. I know lots of fans are nuts about both of these guys, but Muir was only so-so last year and has a history of injuries, while Bullitt was really exposed in coverage. Don’t be surprised if potential replacements are drafted for either or both.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Mocking the mockers (including me)

Here at ColtPlay, we like to look at what other people are saying. So here’s a collection of what most of the internet draft predictors have decided the Colts would pick. Perhaps notable by their absence are The Sporting News and ESPN. That’s because they both charge for their info and I don’t want to let their cats out of their bags. They’re always wrong, anyway, so you’re not missing much. So without them, here’s what we have.

About.com Jared Odrick DT Penn State
CBS Sports’ Chad Reuter Brandon Graham DE Michigan
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
CBS Sports’ Rob Rang Charles Brown T USC
CDS Draft Brandon LaFell WR LSU
ColtPlay Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
Draft Board Insider Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Draft Countdown Charles Brown T USC
Draft Huddle Charles Brown T USC
Draft King Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Draft Zoo Jerry Hughes DE TCU
DraftDaddy.com Charles Brown T USC
DrafTek Charles Brown T USC
DraftSite Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
East Coast Sports News Brian Price DT UCLA
Fantasy Football Jungle Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Fantasy Football Xtreme Donovan Warren CB Michigan
Football Jabber Roger Saffold T Indiana
Football’s Future Brian Price DT UCLA
Football’s Future Brian Price DT UCLA
FOX Sports’ Peter Schrager Brian Price DT UCLA
GBNReport Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
KFFL Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Mocking The Draft Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
MyNFLDraft Brian Price DT UCLA
National Football Post Roger Saffold T Indiana
NESN Roger Saffold T Indiana
New Era Scouting Bruce Campbell T Maryland
New NFL Draft Mike Iupati G Idaho
NFL Draft 101 Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
NFL Draft Blitz Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
NFL Draft Dog Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
NFL News and Rumors Daryl Washington ILB TCU
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
NFL.com's Charles Davis Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Pro Football Weekly Roger Saffold T Indiana
ProFootballTalk Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Redzone Report Jared Odrick DT Penn State
RotoTimes’ Ted Carlson Brian Price DT UCLA
Saturdays2Sundays Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Scout.com’s Chris Steuber Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Scout's Notebook Bruce Campbell T Maryland
SI.com’s Don Banks Brian Price DT UCLA
Sideline Scouting Brian Price DT UCLA
Sunday Kickoff Brian Price DT UCLA
The Draft Matters Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Walter Football Roger Saffold T Indiana
Weller and Bryan Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri

I’ll save you the counting, and add my take:

9 DT Price
Very productive, but sloppy and raw. Doesn’t look strong enough to distinguish himself at the NFL level right away. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

8 C Pouncey
Could use a few more degrees of dedication to the game, but otherwise a great prospect. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Pretty darn happy.

5 T Brown
Ugh. I hate to say it, but he looks like a potential bust to me. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if Polian’s lost it.

5 DT Odrick
Another skinny college DT who’d be better off as a 3-4 end. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wishing they hadn’t.

5 T Saffold
Looked great in the Senior Bowl, but was inconsistent before that. Will develop, but lacks killer instinct as run blocker. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

4 CB McCourty
He already plays like a Colts’ DB, and could easily grab the return job. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Delighted.

2 OLB Weatherspoon
Very good college ’backer who’s smaller than NFL standards and not all that tough seeming. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Meh.

2 T Campbell
Great pass blocker who lacks bite in the run game, is that really what the Colts want? If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

1 CB Wilson
Great college corner who may not be tough and strong enough in the run game. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if they have changed their defense as radically as all that.

1 CB Warren
A great athlete at corner who needs to learn and use more technique and aggressiveness to succeed. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if he’ll ever be better than a fourth corner.

1 WR LaFell
A strong and talented college star at WR who lacks speed and explosiveness. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if the NFL is allowing the Colts to play with two balls at once.

1 DE Graham
Wow. A great college DE and a great kid. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering how he fell so far in the draft.

1 DE Hughes
A much-hyped pass-rusher whose so-so first step may translate to a tough time in the NFL. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Hoping he's a better prospect than I once thought.

1 G Iupati
A college guard who can also play tackle, he seems capable of Pro Bowl play at either position. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Surprised he wasn’t selected a dozen picks earlier.

1 CB Jackson
A pretty solid college CB who may not have the explosiveness to be an NFL star. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if they saw something I didn’t.

1 ILB Washington
This guy’s a great athlete who lacks instincts and size. And he might not have Colts-type character. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Hoping they didn’t.

1 CB Robinson
Personally, I love this kid; not just as a corner, but as a return man as well. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Pretty impressed.

So, if you agree with the media, the Colts will grab Price or Pouncey. But before you put all your mock draft eggs in one basket, keep in mind that not a single one of those experts (including ColtPlay) correctly predicted that the Colts would draft Donald Brown in the first round. And only one of them had the Colts drafting a halfback first (and that was Ohio State’s Beanie Wells).

So in honor of that record of ineptitude by us draft predictors, and the Colts’ ability to surprise us all, I’m changing my guess from McCourty to Virginia Tech Jason Worilds. Wait, nobody has him yet, do they?

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Draft month begins

Some of the things I’ve been thinking about this time of year:

• My last year’s draft prediction would have worked out okay for the Colts:

1/27 Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina (6006/212/4.51c) picked Giants
Great first season (47-790-6 on just 71 targets), and sky-high upside

2/61 Eben Britton T Arizona (6060/309/5.14c) picked by Jaguars
That pesky left tackle-of-the-future problem would have been solved

3/92 Myron Pryor DT Kentucky (6002/319/5.03c) picked by Patriots
Certainly not a star performer, but a good run defender and contributor

4/127 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M (6027/225/4.61c) picked by Cowboys
Okay, he didn’t play, but he’s still a heck of a lot more inspiring than Painter

4/136 Gerald McRath ILB Southern Mississippi (6017/231/4.49c) picked by Titans
Not exactly Brian Cushing, but had a decent rookie season and is likely to start in 2010; a force on kickoff coverage

5/165 Joe Burnett CB/RS Central Florida (5093/192/4.58c) picked by Steelers
Didn’t play a lot on defense, but looked okay when he did; did not mount a real claim for the kick return job in Pittsburgh

6/201 Tyrell Sutton HB Northwestern (5080/211/4.68c4.64pd) picked by Packers
Cut by Green Bay, then claimed by Carolina. Shifted from halfback to fullback and gave the Panthers a powerful short-yardage guy at either position, he’s also a plus blocker and went a very respectable 14-302-0 when pressed into duty as a kick returner

7/236 Dudley Guice Jr. WR Northwestern State (6024/209/4.40pd) signed by Titans
Cut by the Titans, he’s a Colt now

• With Tom Moore sidelined, I wonder if there is any chance of a real, actual fullback creeping his way onto the Colts’ roster. As it is now, the Colts’ offensive personnel resembles that of one of those run-and-shoot teams that were all the rage in the 80s. The reason they died out is that they piled up lots of yards, but failed repeatedly on short yardage and in the red zone. Which, of course, are the Colts’ problems. In the Moore era, when a fullback was needed, they would either motion in a tight end or a wide receiver (I even saw Brandon Stokley in there!) or borrow a lineman from the defense. And, of course, it has seen little success.

If they do decide they need a fullback, he could be on the roster. Cody Glenn started his career at Nebraska, but was shifted to linebacker as a senior. He saw a few snaps there last season, but was not that impressive. Although they could groom him, I’d much rather see them draft a guy like Maryland’s Cory Jackson or Boise State’s Richie Brockel. Not only would it be a boost for the anemic running game, but it could improve blitz pickup, provide another dump-off option and strengthen special teams.

• I have this unusual feeling that the Colts might draft a cornerback in the first round. I’m not sure I’d do it myself, but I can’t shake the feeling.

• Lots of mock drafts – even those by Colts fans – are predicting that they will call Charles Brown’s name in the first round. I have to ask those people if they are absolutely unfamiliar with the concept of Tony Ugoh. Brown is eerily reminiscent of Ugoh in every way, although I think Ugoh has a much stronger upper body. Brown certainly looks like a left tackle in workouts, but less so on game film. Why is he so unpolished after spending his college career in a pro-style offense with great coaches at Southern Cal? Will he ever care enough to be what a team needs him to be? I could be very, very wrong, but I’d play it safe and steer well clear of Brown.

• My mock, so far

1/31 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
2/63 Corey Wooten DE Northwestern
3/94 Jason Fox T Miami
4/129 Stevenson Sylvester OLB Utah
5/162 Clay Harbor TE Southwest Missouri
7/238 Jeff Linkenbach T Cincinnati
7/240 Sam Scott OLB West Chester
7/246 Josh Gordy CB Central Michigan