All the other sites are doing position analyses, so ColtPlay will take a shot too. Here's No. 1:
I was going to do a whole big quarterback positional analysis with lots of numbers and everything, but I think I can condense it. Look at it this way: If the Colts play all 16 games with their current players and try to win each of them, with Peyton Manning behind center, I’d expect they win 14 to 16; with Jim Sorgi, it would be 7 or 8; and with Curtis Painter 0 to 2. Manning and Sorgi are in the plateau of their careers in which they are unlikely to show much improvement or decline right away. Painter is at the beginning of his pro career, but must make huge mental strides (like not panicking at the snap of every play) to make any progress as an NFL player.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Early look at needs
Let’s not kid ourselves. The Colts will not be players in veteran free agency. Only very rarely have they ever been, and it doesn’t look like they will be this year either. So if they are adding players, it will be through the draft and undrafted free agents. So let’s take a look at the Colts’ personnel at every position to see who they might draft. Of course, I’m not predicting that these are the guys they’ll draft, just what kind of guys you can expect.
Quarterbacks
Get serious. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterback in NFL history and not slowing down. Do you think you replace him with the 31st pick? Nope, the Colts will replace him after he falls apart or retires and they go 1-15 to earn pick No. 1 and grab ... who knows, does Peyton have a son? And I don’t think they’re looking for a backup either. Jim Sorgi’s a free agent, but he’s pretty much assured to come back. Oh, and there’s Curtis Painter, last year’s draft pick, and a guy named Drew Willy. Need: I’m pretty certain they won’t draft anyone, but they are likely to invite a big-armed small-schooler to camp.
Runningbacks
In truth, the Colts don’t really have a go-to back, but they do have two recent first rounders still under contract, so don’t expect to see a pick used here. Need: I’d love to see them draft a big bruiser who’d be more of a sure-thing on short yardage, but they won’t do it. The only way I can see them going after a back would be if there was a potentially great return man available near the end of the second day.
Wide Receivers
The Colts play three wide more often than any team in the league, but four wide less than any team in the league, yet they have four starting quality receivers already on the roster in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. And they have a bunch of really interesting prospects beyond that. Need: As with runningback, they are likely only to grab a wide receiver if a return specialist who can also help on coverage units pops up.
Tight Ends
While it is true that the Colts have a premier tight end in Dallas Clark, keep in mind that the Colts play with two tight ends on about 35 percent of all offensive plays, and Clark goes into the slot or splits wide with stunning regularity. Incumbent No. 2, Gijon Robinson, works hard but would probably be a better No. 3. And recent draft picks Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi have offered little. Need: The Colts could well spend a mid-round pick on an all-purpose tight end to push the guys they have.
Tackles
Left tackle might be the Colts’ weakest position. Charlie Johnson tries really hard, but he’s a natural guard playing way out of position. The guy he took over for – Tony Ugoh – has all the tools, but lacks the all-important instincts and aggressiveness necessary for the position. It looks like his ship has sailed. And while I don’t agree with all the criticism headed right tackle Ryan Diem’s way, he’ll be a well-worn 31 years old by the time the season rolls around. The other guys on the roster – Michael Toudouze, Dan Federkeil and Gerald Cadogan – don’t appear to be serious contenders to start. Need: I would be very surprised if the Colts did not pick a left tackle prospect on the first day of the draft. Look for quick, athletic types to draw their interest but for the Colts also to try to get bigger and more aggressive at the position.
Guards
The plan lasts season was to start veteran Ryan Lilja with 2008 second-round pick Mike Pollak. But Pollak was not great as a pass blocker and just awful as a run blocker, so he lost his job to unheralded former Arena2 player Kyle DeVan. He did better, but looks more like a very solid No. 3 than a guy you want starting. Lilja played well, but has been bothered by injuries. Jaimie Thomas, a seventh-round pick from 2009 is a long shot. Need: It would not shock me if the Colts selected a massive guard with a mean streak in the middle rounds.
Centers
Starter Jeff Saturday is still amazing, but will be 35 when the season begins. His backup, Jamey Richard, would have to add strength to become an effective starter. Need: The Colts like college centers at guard – Lilja and Pollak were primarily centers in college, and former Colts starting guard Jake Scott also played there – so they could draft one or two. One could play guard, while the other could challenge Richard to be Saturday’s heir apparent. How about a guy like: Hawaii’s John Estes in the sixth (compensatory)?
Defensive Ends
Casual observers would say the Colts are set at DE with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. But Freeney will be 30 when the season starts and has been losing time to nagging injuries in recent years, while Mathis has a lot of wear and tear on his undersized 29-year-old frame. Raheem Brock was a disaster this year, and is likely to be cut. His $5.89 million projected salary certainly doesn’t help his cause. Keyunta Dawson was a starting DT in 2008, and was supposed to help at DE, but he added nothing as a pass-rusher (four pressures in 159 rushes) and little against the run. He’s not the answer. The prospects aren’t that much to get excited about, although Chick could become a situational pass rusher. Need: It’s not urgently pressing, but a potential starter would be nice. It’d be even better if Chick was that guy.
Defensive Tackles
A year after spending to high draft picks at defensive tackle, the Colts are hardly any better. And if they are, it’s not because of the draft picks. The best player at the position is Eric Foster, but at 265 pounds on game day, the Colts would be better off spotting him and keeping him out of obvious run situations. The other spot was usually occupied by Daniel Muir or Antonio “Mookie” Johnson. Both are much bigger men than Foster, but not as effective. Muir is more solid against the run, but offers little pass rush, while Johnson’s a better pass-rusher who is not very good at defending the run. Both have injury concerns, and Johnson also has a problem with penalties. Behind them is 2009 second-rounder Fili Moala (the fourth-rounder, Terrance Taylor, was cut in camp and is now hoping to catch on with his hometown Lions), who played sparingly as a rookie and looked pretty bad. A non-factor against the run, he showed a faint spark as a pass rusher, but in general looked like he was overmatched and lacking in fundamental strength. I know it takes a while for many DTs to develop, but right now he looks like he’ll never make a difference in the NFL. Need: I hate to say it, but I still wouldn’t mind at least one new starter, which would allow Foster to play more sparingly.
Outside Linebackers
Colts fans love starting weakside backer Clint Session; but in reality, he’s a hot and cold player with major problems when it comes to play recognition and is not great in coverage. The Colts wanted to pair him with former second-round pick Philip Wheeler out of camp, but Wheeler wasn’t up to it. Instead, slow but steady veteran Tyjuan Hagler stood in. He played well in both coverage and run stopping, but went down after the seventh game. In fact, Hagler’s played in only 37 of a possible 80 regular-season games as a Colt, so it’s unlikely they put much faith in him in 2010. Wheeler then took the spot, and was decent in coverage, but was thrown around against the run and was a sloppy tackler. The top reserve was undrafted rookie Ramon Humber, who didn’t embarrass himself, but didn’t make any believers either. Need: The Colts have never shown this position much respect draft wise, and it’s too early to call Wheeler a bust. But you’ll see someone added here, unless they see more in Humber than I do.
Inside Linebackers
Gary Brackett is in the top half of starting NFL inside linebackers. And his production is augmented by his locker room presence. His primary backup in 2009 was former weakside starter Freddy Keiaho, who’s an okay player but no threat to start inside or out. Humber also played here and looked better than he did outside. Brackett is an unrestricted free agent and the Colts have decided not to put the franchise tag on him, so he’ll be free to negotiate in the first week of March. More likely, the Colts will re-sign him before he hits the open market. Need: In the unlikely event Brackett signs elsewhere, this position becomes the team’s primary need. Should he re-sign, however, they’ll be looking at a prospect to develop.
Cornerbacks
A number of injuries tested the Colts’ depth at this position, and the replacements stood up surprisingly well. Incumbent starters Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson both missed time, which opened up spots for rookies Jerraud Powers (third round) and Jacob Lacey (undrafted), who played much better than expected. Tiny veteran Tim Jennings also played extensively. He was inconsistent, but generally graded out okay. Need: Jackson and Jennings are both free agents, but the Colts have shown they can win without either. They could draft a corner if they lose one or both, but I don’t see it.
Safeties
Heading into the 2009 season, the Colts had two great safeties in Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea and a proven backup in Melvin Bullitt. But as had happened so many times before, Sanders went on injured reserve. Bethea played great, but Bullitt was exposed – especially in coverage – as not quite up to starter quality. Behind them are slow but strangely effective Jamie Silva and free agent mistake Aaron Francisco. Need: Sanders can’t be relied upon, and Bullitt is probably not the long-term answer. I wouldn’t mind seeing another developmental type here.
Quarterbacks
Get serious. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterback in NFL history and not slowing down. Do you think you replace him with the 31st pick? Nope, the Colts will replace him after he falls apart or retires and they go 1-15 to earn pick No. 1 and grab ... who knows, does Peyton have a son? And I don’t think they’re looking for a backup either. Jim Sorgi’s a free agent, but he’s pretty much assured to come back. Oh, and there’s Curtis Painter, last year’s draft pick, and a guy named Drew Willy. Need: I’m pretty certain they won’t draft anyone, but they are likely to invite a big-armed small-schooler to camp.
Runningbacks
In truth, the Colts don’t really have a go-to back, but they do have two recent first rounders still under contract, so don’t expect to see a pick used here. Need: I’d love to see them draft a big bruiser who’d be more of a sure-thing on short yardage, but they won’t do it. The only way I can see them going after a back would be if there was a potentially great return man available near the end of the second day.
Wide Receivers
The Colts play three wide more often than any team in the league, but four wide less than any team in the league, yet they have four starting quality receivers already on the roster in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. And they have a bunch of really interesting prospects beyond that. Need: As with runningback, they are likely only to grab a wide receiver if a return specialist who can also help on coverage units pops up.
Tight Ends
While it is true that the Colts have a premier tight end in Dallas Clark, keep in mind that the Colts play with two tight ends on about 35 percent of all offensive plays, and Clark goes into the slot or splits wide with stunning regularity. Incumbent No. 2, Gijon Robinson, works hard but would probably be a better No. 3. And recent draft picks Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi have offered little. Need: The Colts could well spend a mid-round pick on an all-purpose tight end to push the guys they have.
Tackles
Left tackle might be the Colts’ weakest position. Charlie Johnson tries really hard, but he’s a natural guard playing way out of position. The guy he took over for – Tony Ugoh – has all the tools, but lacks the all-important instincts and aggressiveness necessary for the position. It looks like his ship has sailed. And while I don’t agree with all the criticism headed right tackle Ryan Diem’s way, he’ll be a well-worn 31 years old by the time the season rolls around. The other guys on the roster – Michael Toudouze, Dan Federkeil and Gerald Cadogan – don’t appear to be serious contenders to start. Need: I would be very surprised if the Colts did not pick a left tackle prospect on the first day of the draft. Look for quick, athletic types to draw their interest but for the Colts also to try to get bigger and more aggressive at the position.
Guards
The plan lasts season was to start veteran Ryan Lilja with 2008 second-round pick Mike Pollak. But Pollak was not great as a pass blocker and just awful as a run blocker, so he lost his job to unheralded former Arena2 player Kyle DeVan. He did better, but looks more like a very solid No. 3 than a guy you want starting. Lilja played well, but has been bothered by injuries. Jaimie Thomas, a seventh-round pick from 2009 is a long shot. Need: It would not shock me if the Colts selected a massive guard with a mean streak in the middle rounds.
Centers
Starter Jeff Saturday is still amazing, but will be 35 when the season begins. His backup, Jamey Richard, would have to add strength to become an effective starter. Need: The Colts like college centers at guard – Lilja and Pollak were primarily centers in college, and former Colts starting guard Jake Scott also played there – so they could draft one or two. One could play guard, while the other could challenge Richard to be Saturday’s heir apparent. How about a guy like: Hawaii’s John Estes in the sixth (compensatory)?
Defensive Ends
Casual observers would say the Colts are set at DE with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. But Freeney will be 30 when the season starts and has been losing time to nagging injuries in recent years, while Mathis has a lot of wear and tear on his undersized 29-year-old frame. Raheem Brock was a disaster this year, and is likely to be cut. His $5.89 million projected salary certainly doesn’t help his cause. Keyunta Dawson was a starting DT in 2008, and was supposed to help at DE, but he added nothing as a pass-rusher (four pressures in 159 rushes) and little against the run. He’s not the answer. The prospects aren’t that much to get excited about, although Chick could become a situational pass rusher. Need: It’s not urgently pressing, but a potential starter would be nice. It’d be even better if Chick was that guy.
Defensive Tackles
A year after spending to high draft picks at defensive tackle, the Colts are hardly any better. And if they are, it’s not because of the draft picks. The best player at the position is Eric Foster, but at 265 pounds on game day, the Colts would be better off spotting him and keeping him out of obvious run situations. The other spot was usually occupied by Daniel Muir or Antonio “Mookie” Johnson. Both are much bigger men than Foster, but not as effective. Muir is more solid against the run, but offers little pass rush, while Johnson’s a better pass-rusher who is not very good at defending the run. Both have injury concerns, and Johnson also has a problem with penalties. Behind them is 2009 second-rounder Fili Moala (the fourth-rounder, Terrance Taylor, was cut in camp and is now hoping to catch on with his hometown Lions), who played sparingly as a rookie and looked pretty bad. A non-factor against the run, he showed a faint spark as a pass rusher, but in general looked like he was overmatched and lacking in fundamental strength. I know it takes a while for many DTs to develop, but right now he looks like he’ll never make a difference in the NFL. Need: I hate to say it, but I still wouldn’t mind at least one new starter, which would allow Foster to play more sparingly.
Outside Linebackers
Colts fans love starting weakside backer Clint Session; but in reality, he’s a hot and cold player with major problems when it comes to play recognition and is not great in coverage. The Colts wanted to pair him with former second-round pick Philip Wheeler out of camp, but Wheeler wasn’t up to it. Instead, slow but steady veteran Tyjuan Hagler stood in. He played well in both coverage and run stopping, but went down after the seventh game. In fact, Hagler’s played in only 37 of a possible 80 regular-season games as a Colt, so it’s unlikely they put much faith in him in 2010. Wheeler then took the spot, and was decent in coverage, but was thrown around against the run and was a sloppy tackler. The top reserve was undrafted rookie Ramon Humber, who didn’t embarrass himself, but didn’t make any believers either. Need: The Colts have never shown this position much respect draft wise, and it’s too early to call Wheeler a bust. But you’ll see someone added here, unless they see more in Humber than I do.
Inside Linebackers
Gary Brackett is in the top half of starting NFL inside linebackers. And his production is augmented by his locker room presence. His primary backup in 2009 was former weakside starter Freddy Keiaho, who’s an okay player but no threat to start inside or out. Humber also played here and looked better than he did outside. Brackett is an unrestricted free agent and the Colts have decided not to put the franchise tag on him, so he’ll be free to negotiate in the first week of March. More likely, the Colts will re-sign him before he hits the open market. Need: In the unlikely event Brackett signs elsewhere, this position becomes the team’s primary need. Should he re-sign, however, they’ll be looking at a prospect to develop.
Cornerbacks
A number of injuries tested the Colts’ depth at this position, and the replacements stood up surprisingly well. Incumbent starters Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson both missed time, which opened up spots for rookies Jerraud Powers (third round) and Jacob Lacey (undrafted), who played much better than expected. Tiny veteran Tim Jennings also played extensively. He was inconsistent, but generally graded out okay. Need: Jackson and Jennings are both free agents, but the Colts have shown they can win without either. They could draft a corner if they lose one or both, but I don’t see it.
Safeties
Heading into the 2009 season, the Colts had two great safeties in Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea and a proven backup in Melvin Bullitt. But as had happened so many times before, Sanders went on injured reserve. Bethea played great, but Bullitt was exposed – especially in coverage – as not quite up to starter quality. Behind them are slow but strangely effective Jamie Silva and free agent mistake Aaron Francisco. Need: Sanders can’t be relied upon, and Bullitt is probably not the long-term answer. I wouldn’t mind seeing another developmental type here.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Depth Chart
Quarterbacks
18 Manning, Peyton
12 Sorgi, Jim (IR)
7 Painter, Curtis
16 Willy, Drew
Runningbacks
29 Addai, Joseph
31 Brown, Donald
32 Hart, Mike
35 Simpson, Chad
00 Moore, Devin
Wide Receivers
87 Wayne, Reggie
11 Gonzalez, Anthony (IR)
85 Garcon, Pierre
17 Collie, Austin
81 Baskett, Hank (URFA)
10 Smith, Taj
14 Giguere, Sam
83 Matthews, John
00 Guice Jr., Dudley
Tight Ends
44 Clark, Dallas
47 Robinson, Gijon
86 Santi, Tom (IR)
84 Tamme, Jacob
46 Cloherty, Colin
80 Petrowski, Jamie
Tackles
71 Diem, Ryan
74 Johnson, Charlie (URFA)
67 Ugoh, Tony
76 Federkeil, Daniel (RFA/IR)
75 Toudouze, Michael
00 Cadogan, Gerald
Guards
65 Lilja, Ryan
66 DeVan, Kyle
78 Pollak, Mike
73 Thomas, Jaimie
Centers
63 Saturday, Jeff
61 Richard, Jamey
Defensive Ends
93 Freeney, Dwight
98 Mathis, Robert
79 Brock, Raheem
96 Dawson, Keyunta
94 Baldwin, Ervin
97 Hardie, Rudolph
00 Chick, John
Defensive Tackles
90 Muir, Daniel (ERFA)
68 Foster, Eric
99 Johnson, Antonio (ERFA)
95 Moala, Fili
69 Gill, John
00 King, Mitch
Outside Linebackers
55 Session, Clint
56 Hagler, Tyjuan (URFA/IR)
50 Wheeler, Philip
52 Glenn, Cody
57 Renkart, Brandon
Inside Linebackers
58 Brackett, Gary (UFA)
54 Keiaho, Freddy (URFA)
59 Humber, Ramon
Cornerbacks
26 Hayden, Kelvin
25 Powers, Jerraud
28 Jackson, Marlin (URFA/IR)
23 Jennings, Tim (URFA)
27 Lacey, Jacob
20 Rushing, T.J. (URFA)
34 Lambert, Terrail
Safeties
21 Sanders, Bob (IR)
41 Bethea, Antoine (URFA)
33 Bullitt, Melvin (RFA)
40 Silva, Jamie
43 Francisco, Aaron (URFA)
Kickers
4 Vinatieri, Adam
3 Stover, Matt (UFA)
Punter
1 McAfee, Pat
Long Snapper
48 Snow, Justin
Key
IR=Ended the season on Injured Reserve
UFA=Scheduled to become an unresticted free agent
URFA=Scheduled to become an unresticted free agent, but would have been a restricted free agent under the old CBA
RFA=Scheduled to become a resticted free agent
ERFA=Scheduled to become an exclusive-rights free agent
18 Manning, Peyton
12 Sorgi, Jim (IR)
7 Painter, Curtis
16 Willy, Drew
Runningbacks
29 Addai, Joseph
31 Brown, Donald
32 Hart, Mike
35 Simpson, Chad
00 Moore, Devin
Wide Receivers
87 Wayne, Reggie
11 Gonzalez, Anthony (IR)
85 Garcon, Pierre
17 Collie, Austin
81 Baskett, Hank (URFA)
10 Smith, Taj
14 Giguere, Sam
83 Matthews, John
00 Guice Jr., Dudley
Tight Ends
44 Clark, Dallas
47 Robinson, Gijon
86 Santi, Tom (IR)
84 Tamme, Jacob
46 Cloherty, Colin
80 Petrowski, Jamie
Tackles
71 Diem, Ryan
74 Johnson, Charlie (URFA)
67 Ugoh, Tony
76 Federkeil, Daniel (RFA/IR)
75 Toudouze, Michael
00 Cadogan, Gerald
Guards
65 Lilja, Ryan
66 DeVan, Kyle
78 Pollak, Mike
73 Thomas, Jaimie
Centers
63 Saturday, Jeff
61 Richard, Jamey
Defensive Ends
93 Freeney, Dwight
98 Mathis, Robert
79 Brock, Raheem
96 Dawson, Keyunta
94 Baldwin, Ervin
97 Hardie, Rudolph
00 Chick, John
Defensive Tackles
90 Muir, Daniel (ERFA)
68 Foster, Eric
99 Johnson, Antonio (ERFA)
95 Moala, Fili
69 Gill, John
00 King, Mitch
Outside Linebackers
55 Session, Clint
56 Hagler, Tyjuan (URFA/IR)
50 Wheeler, Philip
52 Glenn, Cody
57 Renkart, Brandon
Inside Linebackers
58 Brackett, Gary (UFA)
54 Keiaho, Freddy (URFA)
59 Humber, Ramon
Cornerbacks
26 Hayden, Kelvin
25 Powers, Jerraud
28 Jackson, Marlin (URFA/IR)
23 Jennings, Tim (URFA)
27 Lacey, Jacob
20 Rushing, T.J. (URFA)
34 Lambert, Terrail
Safeties
21 Sanders, Bob (IR)
41 Bethea, Antoine (URFA)
33 Bullitt, Melvin (RFA)
40 Silva, Jamie
43 Francisco, Aaron (URFA)
Kickers
4 Vinatieri, Adam
3 Stover, Matt (UFA)
Punter
1 McAfee, Pat
Long Snapper
48 Snow, Justin
Key
IR=Ended the season on Injured Reserve
UFA=Scheduled to become an unresticted free agent
URFA=Scheduled to become an unresticted free agent, but would have been a restricted free agent under the old CBA
RFA=Scheduled to become a resticted free agent
ERFA=Scheduled to become an exclusive-rights free agent
Future Colts
For ColtPlay’s triumphantly quiet return and 2010 debut, let’s take a quick look at the players signed to future contracts.
Gerald Cadogan OT (6051/309/4.99c): Lots of Colts fans are excited by this guy, but you’ll forgive me if I am, at best, reserved. I’ve just been around too long to get really heated up over this sort of thing. Every year, there’s some guy the draft guides predict as a middle rounder, and he slips from the draft and winds up with the Colts as a UDFA or after being cut by some other team. And I can’t recall a one of them ever working out. There’s a reason NFL GMs get paid more than draft guide writers. And there’s often a reason those guys don’t get selected. I prefer those guys out of the blue, the ones you’ve never or only barely heard of – the Gary Bracketts of the world, not the Dale Robinsons. So you can understand why I’m a bit wary of Cadogan. That’s not to say I don’t have a great deal of respect for him. He’s a fine, intelligent young man who did some great work at Penn State. But he’s not always the first (second or third) guy off the snap, he lacks real upper body strength and has only so-so footwork. The same guys who wrote that he’d be selected in the fourth round in those draft guides also say he’d be better off if he was converted to guard. I’m not sure I agree with that either. I see him coming to camp and competing for a backup tackle spot, but I think he’s a long shot.
John Chick DE (6032/265/4.62pd): Chick is a very interesting signing. He played very well at Utah State, and impressed at his Pro Day, but went undrafted. He signed with the Texans, who cut him and he, like Guice, went to the CFL. But unlike Guice, he stayed; and in 2009, he won the league’s award for Outstanding Defensive player on the Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan Roughriders. He’s very quick, a good athlete who could well translate his CFL success in the NFL with a touch more strength and technique. Throw away the 265-pound Pro Day weight, he plays at around 250. Chick arrives at a a valuable time. The Colts’ defense depends a great deal on its ends for its total pass rush, and although their primary ends are very effective, they are getting older (Dwight Freeney is 30, and Robert Mathis has a lot of wear and tear on his slight 29-year-old frame). The Colts have tried and failed to develop a reliable backup for years. Chick has diabetes and is an active and vocal advocate for people affected with it.
Dudley Guice Jr. WR (6024/209/4.40pd): If you’ve read ColtPlay even a little, you know we’re big fans of Guice’s. He’s a big receiver who was really productive in a small-school environment. Cut by the Titans after they invited a million receivers to camp, he had a short stay in the CFL. Guice is an undeniably talented guy, but he is competing for a spot on a team with four starting-quality receivers – Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez – but almost never plays four wide. It would definitely help Guice’s position if he can show Kassim Osgood-like ability on special teams. I know he’s willing.
Mitch King DT (6014/280/4.83c4.89pd): King’s a lot like Cadogan, a big name at a big-time college who just doesn’t look all that much like an NFL player to me now that his weaknesses have been exposed. In fact, while draft guides had him going as early as the second round (!), he went undrafted, and wound up with the Titans. He spent the season on their practice squad and after his contract expired, chose to switch to the Colts. I think King is a better pro prospect than Cadogan, but I also think he’s with the wrong team. King lacks the quick acceleration and agility of a 4-3 end and the size and strength of a 4-3 tackle. I honestly think he’d be better off – perhaps even an NFL starter – as a 3-4 end. I know what you’re thinking: The Colts have used lots of undersized DTs over the years. While that’s true, it hasn’t exactly worked out for them, has it? But let’s give King the benefit of the doubt because of his college production. He’ll be thrown into the expected-to-be-vicious battle for a DT spot, and will have to scrap like he’s never scrapped to make the final roster. If he does, he’ll be used as a situational player, like Keyunta Dawson.
Devin Moore RB (5095/187/4.34pd): Moore’s an interesting guy, a local Indy kid who is blazing fast and fairly productive at Wyoming. But there are a few caveats. Moore’s small for any position and has appeared to be relatively easy to bring down. And while he is very fast, he’s a long strider who lacks the jitterbug stutter step needed to return punts or make people miss as a halfback or slot receiver. His hands are good, but his routes less so. And he’s a speed bump as a pass blocker. Unless I’m very much mistaken, his only chance at a job with the Colts would be if he wins the kick return job outright. To do that, he’d have to have an extraordinary camp and preseason.
Gerald Cadogan OT (6051/309/4.99c): Lots of Colts fans are excited by this guy, but you’ll forgive me if I am, at best, reserved. I’ve just been around too long to get really heated up over this sort of thing. Every year, there’s some guy the draft guides predict as a middle rounder, and he slips from the draft and winds up with the Colts as a UDFA or after being cut by some other team. And I can’t recall a one of them ever working out. There’s a reason NFL GMs get paid more than draft guide writers. And there’s often a reason those guys don’t get selected. I prefer those guys out of the blue, the ones you’ve never or only barely heard of – the Gary Bracketts of the world, not the Dale Robinsons. So you can understand why I’m a bit wary of Cadogan. That’s not to say I don’t have a great deal of respect for him. He’s a fine, intelligent young man who did some great work at Penn State. But he’s not always the first (second or third) guy off the snap, he lacks real upper body strength and has only so-so footwork. The same guys who wrote that he’d be selected in the fourth round in those draft guides also say he’d be better off if he was converted to guard. I’m not sure I agree with that either. I see him coming to camp and competing for a backup tackle spot, but I think he’s a long shot.
John Chick DE (6032/265/4.62pd): Chick is a very interesting signing. He played very well at Utah State, and impressed at his Pro Day, but went undrafted. He signed with the Texans, who cut him and he, like Guice, went to the CFL. But unlike Guice, he stayed; and in 2009, he won the league’s award for Outstanding Defensive player on the Grey Cup champion Saskatchewan Roughriders. He’s very quick, a good athlete who could well translate his CFL success in the NFL with a touch more strength and technique. Throw away the 265-pound Pro Day weight, he plays at around 250. Chick arrives at a a valuable time. The Colts’ defense depends a great deal on its ends for its total pass rush, and although their primary ends are very effective, they are getting older (Dwight Freeney is 30, and Robert Mathis has a lot of wear and tear on his slight 29-year-old frame). The Colts have tried and failed to develop a reliable backup for years. Chick has diabetes and is an active and vocal advocate for people affected with it.
Dudley Guice Jr. WR (6024/209/4.40pd): If you’ve read ColtPlay even a little, you know we’re big fans of Guice’s. He’s a big receiver who was really productive in a small-school environment. Cut by the Titans after they invited a million receivers to camp, he had a short stay in the CFL. Guice is an undeniably talented guy, but he is competing for a spot on a team with four starting-quality receivers – Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez – but almost never plays four wide. It would definitely help Guice’s position if he can show Kassim Osgood-like ability on special teams. I know he’s willing.
Mitch King DT (6014/280/4.83c4.89pd): King’s a lot like Cadogan, a big name at a big-time college who just doesn’t look all that much like an NFL player to me now that his weaknesses have been exposed. In fact, while draft guides had him going as early as the second round (!), he went undrafted, and wound up with the Titans. He spent the season on their practice squad and after his contract expired, chose to switch to the Colts. I think King is a better pro prospect than Cadogan, but I also think he’s with the wrong team. King lacks the quick acceleration and agility of a 4-3 end and the size and strength of a 4-3 tackle. I honestly think he’d be better off – perhaps even an NFL starter – as a 3-4 end. I know what you’re thinking: The Colts have used lots of undersized DTs over the years. While that’s true, it hasn’t exactly worked out for them, has it? But let’s give King the benefit of the doubt because of his college production. He’ll be thrown into the expected-to-be-vicious battle for a DT spot, and will have to scrap like he’s never scrapped to make the final roster. If he does, he’ll be used as a situational player, like Keyunta Dawson.
Devin Moore RB (5095/187/4.34pd): Moore’s an interesting guy, a local Indy kid who is blazing fast and fairly productive at Wyoming. But there are a few caveats. Moore’s small for any position and has appeared to be relatively easy to bring down. And while he is very fast, he’s a long strider who lacks the jitterbug stutter step needed to return punts or make people miss as a halfback or slot receiver. His hands are good, but his routes less so. And he’s a speed bump as a pass blocker. Unless I’m very much mistaken, his only chance at a job with the Colts would be if he wins the kick return job outright. To do that, he’d have to have an extraordinary camp and preseason.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Colts backups vs. Buffalo: Defense
As we explored the offensive subs who played against Buffalo in week 17 earlier, let’s take a look at some of the lesser-known defensive guys. When you consider Buffalo ran for 248 yards and had a 120.8 NFL passer rating, it’s not surprising there’s not much good to talk about.
DT Fili Moala (54 of 72 snaps): Moala had been playing poorly all year, and showed no improvement against Buffalo. Facing off against Geoff Hangartner and Richie Incognito, he made them look like Pro Bowlers. He had one tackle and added nothing to the pass rush.
DT John Gill (53 of 72 snaps): Gill didn’t get much push either, but he was active in run stopping and was involved in a couple of nice plays. His day was nothing to write home about, but much better than Moala’s.
DE Ervin Baldwin (53 of 72 snaps): Baldwin mounted some rush (including getting a QB hit), and was probably the Colts’ best D-lineman against the run. I’ll forgive the missed tackle for the stops at the line.
OLB Ramon Humber (68 of 72 snaps): I still think he’s better inside, and he was pushed around in the run game as O-Linemen got right to him. He needs protection. He had a nice day in coverage, though, easily handling the Bills tight ends.
OLB Cody Glenn (26 of 72 snaps): The erstwhile fullback did not stand out on defense, getting schooled by Terrell Owens in coverage once, and adding little in the fight against the run. He also missed a shoulda-had tackle on special teams.
CB TJ Rushing (1 of 72 snaps): They ran him out there once on a 3rd-and-10 to cover Owens in the slot. Rushing passed him off to Tim Jennings, who allowed a three-yard completion, forcing a punt.
FS Aaron Francisco (72 of 72 snaps): He wasn’t as horrible in coverage as I thought he would be – although he was bad – but he was atrocious against the run, missing as many tackles as he made. It was so wrong to cut Matt Giordano for this guy.
SS Jamie Silva (60 of 72 snaps): Silva actually was very good in coverage, allowing just a couple of short catches in front of him before making solid tackles, and swatting away a short pass meant for Lee Evans. But like all the other Colt defenders, he was not much help on running plays.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Colts backups vs. Buffalo: Offense
I’m not sure the season-ending loss in Buffalo is really worth reviewing for various reasons – including the snow and the lacklustre effort the Colts starters gave* – but it did give us a look at some backups. Here’s ColtPlay’s quick look at some of them:
HB Mike Hart (37 of 52 snaps) and HB Donald Brown (15 of 52 snaps): Both did terribly. I’m sure their fans would like to blame the weather, their offensive line or their lack of a passing attack, but that would hardly explain how Freddie Jackson ran for 212 yards and fullback Corey McIntyre added another 32 on just eight carries. The weather was the same on both sides of the ball, the Bill’s o-line is less talented than the Colts’ (even with backups in there) and Ryan Fitzpatrick is fairly marginal. If you take out Hart’s fluke 15-yard scamper in what was basically a four-wide situation in the 3rd quarter, they ran 13 times for nine yards. Not great considering the Bills had the 31st-ranked rushing defense coming into the game. Hart caught two of four passes thrown his way for 16 yards, and Brown was not thrown to. Both did their jobs as pass-blockers, but little else.
LT Tony Ugoh (52 of 52 snaps): He has some trouble in pass-pro, allowing penetration by both Aaron Schobel and Chris Ellis, but a lot of that was Painter’s fault for holding onto the ball too long. He was so-so in the running game.
RT Michael Toudouze (52 of 52 snaps): This was my first prolonged look at Toudouze, and he was about as good as I thought he’d be, maybe a touch better. He, too, allowed some non-blitz penetration – although he basically neutralized Ryan Denney – but was better than the other Colts when it came to run blocking. That’s not saying he was good, just better than the others.
LG Mike Pollak (31 of 52 snaps): Pollak hadn’t really played much since he was benched in week eight after allowing two sacks. And on his 10th play against Buffalo, he allowed a sack to Kyle Williams. He was pretty solid in pass-pro for the most part other than that one Hail Mary-style play, but was just plain awful in the running game, having his hands full with Williams all day.
C Jamie Richard (31 of 52 snaps): As expected, Richard was pretty adept in pass-pro, but less able to handle Williams and Marcus Stroud in the run game. I’d grade him the best of the non-regular linemen who played against the Bills.
TE Jacob Tamme (34 of 52 snaps): Didn't do anything noteworthy as a blocker; caught one pass for 21 yards (but it was just one of four thrown to him.)
TE Colin Cloherty (21 of 52 snaps): Was he out there? Yes, he was. He caught one pass, a desperation dump off in the right flat for two yards on 3rd-and-15, and was promptly tackled by Drayton Florence. He was barely noticeable as a blocker either way.
WR Hank Baskett (49 of 52 snaps): He had a very, very tough day. Despite facing coverage from also-rans like Reggie Corner and Jon Corto, Baskett got open rarely and when he did, did not show great hands or concentration. Catching just one of five passes thrown to him for seven yards (and that was from Manning when Corner gave a big cushion), he later got injured. A lot of the blame goes to Painter, whose accuracy was terrible, but Baskett simply did not look good.
WR Sam Giguere (32 of 52 snaps): It’s hard to judge a rookie wideout in such a situation, but Giguere failed to catch either pass thrown his way and totally whiffed on a run block. He did however, look good as a kick returner (5-122-0), considering the footing.
QB Curtis Painter (31 of 52 snaps): The Colts have no mercy for this guy. Maybe they shouldn’t. He was outstandingly bad, passing for 39 yards on four completions of 17 passes thrown, with one interception. I realize the weather was bad and all that, but Fitzpatrick’s 120.8 NFL passer rating in the same game makes Painter’s 15.1 (7.5 in non-pressure situations) look especially bad. He also dropped the ball on a draw handoff, which the Bills’ Chris Kelsay picked up. Two plays later, Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a long touchdown.
*Did you see how Kelvin Hayden backed off trying to tackle Terrell Owens at the Colts' five on his long touchdown reception? Shameful.
HB Mike Hart (37 of 52 snaps) and HB Donald Brown (15 of 52 snaps): Both did terribly. I’m sure their fans would like to blame the weather, their offensive line or their lack of a passing attack, but that would hardly explain how Freddie Jackson ran for 212 yards and fullback Corey McIntyre added another 32 on just eight carries. The weather was the same on both sides of the ball, the Bill’s o-line is less talented than the Colts’ (even with backups in there) and Ryan Fitzpatrick is fairly marginal. If you take out Hart’s fluke 15-yard scamper in what was basically a four-wide situation in the 3rd quarter, they ran 13 times for nine yards. Not great considering the Bills had the 31st-ranked rushing defense coming into the game. Hart caught two of four passes thrown his way for 16 yards, and Brown was not thrown to. Both did their jobs as pass-blockers, but little else.
LT Tony Ugoh (52 of 52 snaps): He has some trouble in pass-pro, allowing penetration by both Aaron Schobel and Chris Ellis, but a lot of that was Painter’s fault for holding onto the ball too long. He was so-so in the running game.
RT Michael Toudouze (52 of 52 snaps): This was my first prolonged look at Toudouze, and he was about as good as I thought he’d be, maybe a touch better. He, too, allowed some non-blitz penetration – although he basically neutralized Ryan Denney – but was better than the other Colts when it came to run blocking. That’s not saying he was good, just better than the others.
LG Mike Pollak (31 of 52 snaps): Pollak hadn’t really played much since he was benched in week eight after allowing two sacks. And on his 10th play against Buffalo, he allowed a sack to Kyle Williams. He was pretty solid in pass-pro for the most part other than that one Hail Mary-style play, but was just plain awful in the running game, having his hands full with Williams all day.
C Jamie Richard (31 of 52 snaps): As expected, Richard was pretty adept in pass-pro, but less able to handle Williams and Marcus Stroud in the run game. I’d grade him the best of the non-regular linemen who played against the Bills.
TE Jacob Tamme (34 of 52 snaps): Didn't do anything noteworthy as a blocker; caught one pass for 21 yards (but it was just one of four thrown to him.)
TE Colin Cloherty (21 of 52 snaps): Was he out there? Yes, he was. He caught one pass, a desperation dump off in the right flat for two yards on 3rd-and-15, and was promptly tackled by Drayton Florence. He was barely noticeable as a blocker either way.
WR Hank Baskett (49 of 52 snaps): He had a very, very tough day. Despite facing coverage from also-rans like Reggie Corner and Jon Corto, Baskett got open rarely and when he did, did not show great hands or concentration. Catching just one of five passes thrown to him for seven yards (and that was from Manning when Corner gave a big cushion), he later got injured. A lot of the blame goes to Painter, whose accuracy was terrible, but Baskett simply did not look good.
WR Sam Giguere (32 of 52 snaps): It’s hard to judge a rookie wideout in such a situation, but Giguere failed to catch either pass thrown his way and totally whiffed on a run block. He did however, look good as a kick returner (5-122-0), considering the footing.
QB Curtis Painter (31 of 52 snaps): The Colts have no mercy for this guy. Maybe they shouldn’t. He was outstandingly bad, passing for 39 yards on four completions of 17 passes thrown, with one interception. I realize the weather was bad and all that, but Fitzpatrick’s 120.8 NFL passer rating in the same game makes Painter’s 15.1 (7.5 in non-pressure situations) look especially bad. He also dropped the ball on a draw handoff, which the Bills’ Chris Kelsay picked up. Two plays later, Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a long touchdown.
*Did you see how Kelvin Hayden backed off trying to tackle Terrell Owens at the Colts' five on his long touchdown reception? Shameful.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Smolko added to PS
The latest addition to the Colts practice squad is tight end Isaac Smolko. If his name sounds familiar, it's because he’s been on the Colts’ practice squad before (briefly), and played against them as a Jaguar.
After an okay career at Penn State (13-192-0 receiving as a senior), he was not drafted in 2006 and signed with the Steelers. Despite a productive preseason, he was cut just before the opener.
The following offseason, he signed with the Jaguars. Again, he was one of the final cuts, but joined the Jags’ practice squad, on which they toyed with the idea of converting him to a defensive end. They activated him a couple of time and he saw action mostly on special teams, including against Indy. He caught one of the two passes thrown his way that season, for five yards in a regular-season loss to Houston. In the Jags two playoff games that year (he even started one because the Jags’ first possession was 1st-and-goal from the one and he was part of the short-yardage package), Smolko saw action mainly as a blocker but caught one pass for seven yards.
In 2008, the Jags cut him twice before preseason. He spent two weeks on the Colts practice squad before signing on with the Ravens. They cut him after preseason, signed him again for 2009 and cut him again.
The book on Smolko is that he’s an okay blocker (better in pass-pro than running) and a very good short area receiver. Despite running a 4.70 at his pro day (6043/246 btw), he doesn’t play that fast and is a dump-off option only. I don’t see him as a long-term option, but rather a reliable veteran who can fill in as needed.
After an okay career at Penn State (13-192-0 receiving as a senior), he was not drafted in 2006 and signed with the Steelers. Despite a productive preseason, he was cut just before the opener.
The following offseason, he signed with the Jaguars. Again, he was one of the final cuts, but joined the Jags’ practice squad, on which they toyed with the idea of converting him to a defensive end. They activated him a couple of time and he saw action mostly on special teams, including against Indy. He caught one of the two passes thrown his way that season, for five yards in a regular-season loss to Houston. In the Jags two playoff games that year (he even started one because the Jags’ first possession was 1st-and-goal from the one and he was part of the short-yardage package), Smolko saw action mainly as a blocker but caught one pass for seven yards.
In 2008, the Jags cut him twice before preseason. He spent two weeks on the Colts practice squad before signing on with the Ravens. They cut him after preseason, signed him again for 2009 and cut him again.
The book on Smolko is that he’s an okay blocker (better in pass-pro than running) and a very good short area receiver. Despite running a 4.70 at his pro day (6043/246 btw), he doesn’t play that fast and is a dump-off option only. I don’t see him as a long-term option, but rather a reliable veteran who can fill in as needed.
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