The Blind Side

Using a little formula I devised that assigns 3 points to a sack allowed, 2 points to a QB hit allowed and 1 for each pressure, here’s a look at how effective the Colts’ offensive players have been at protecting the passer:

Donald Brown (HB) INF 21 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Chad Simpson (HB) INF 3 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Mike Hart (HB) INF 1 pass block/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Jeff Saturday (C) 43.22 389 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 pressures

Gijon Robinson (TE) 36.00 36 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 1 pressure

Mike Pollak (RG) 21.36 299 pass blocks/2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 2 pressures

Ryan Lilja (LG) 20.47 389 pass blocks/1 sack, 4 QB hits, 8 pressures

Joseph Addai (HB) 15.50 62 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 pressure

Ryan Diem (RT) 14.41 389 pass blocks/0 sacks, 5 QB hits, 17 pressures

Dallas Clark (TE) 13.50 54 pass blocks/0 sacks, 1 QB hit, 1 pressure

Kyle DeVan (RG) 12.24 208 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 QB hit, 12 pressures

Charlie Johnson (LT) 10.12 344 pass blocks/2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 18 pressures

Tony Ugoh (LT) 5.00 45 pass blocks/3 QB hits, 3 pressures

Things I find interesting about this:

1. Although Diem has let 22 opponents behind him, none have managed a sack, while the left tackles (which does not include Federkeil and DeVan, who played one snap apiece at left tackle, but both on running plays) have allowed 31 opponents past them and given up two sacks. I attribute this to Manning’s incredible ability to get the rid of the ball under pressure. As a right handed passer, he can easily see rushers coming from the right side better than the left.

2. I was surprised Pollak scored better than DeVan (although my scale is far from scientific), but Pollak has not been DeVan’s equal on running plays, and has been much more penalty prone.

3. Jamey Richard has yet to play Snap One.

4. Ugoh has been horrible, losing his man on one of every 7.5 pass blocks. But then, Johnson hasn't exactly looked like Tarik Glenn, either.

Position Analysis: Safeties

For the relaunch of ColtPlay, I thought I’d take a quick look at the Colts safeties:


41 Antoine Bethea
Participation: 9 games, 9 starts, 612 snaps: 240 run (39.2 percent), 3 rush (0.5 percent), 369 cover (60.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 49 tackles, 7 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 7 missed tackles (12.5 percent), 16 defeats, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 20 targets, 11 catches allowed, 201 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 3-19 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 66.9 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5110-203-4.39
Summary: One of the legendary Bill Polian’s best-ever draft steals, this former sixth-rounder from Howard has established himself as one of the league’s premier free safeties. Just as at home in deep coverage as he is stuffing the run, Bethea is a complete player at the position. If you had to look for a drawback, you could say he is flagged for more than his share of penalties. Future: The Colts are lucky that 2010 is an uncapped year and that players must now wait six years to become unrestricted free agents. The team works very hard to re-sign their free agents, especially highly productive ones like Bethea, so it’s a virtual lock that he’ll be back and starting.


33 Melvin Bullitt
Participation: 9 games, 7 starts, 536 snaps: 208 run (38.8 percent), 6 rush (1.1 percent), 322 cover (60.1 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 29 tackles, 3 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (12.1 percent), 8 defeats, 1 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 17 targets, 16 catches allowed, 262 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 118.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6011-201-4.48
Summary: This undrafted former linebacker has endeared himself to Colts fans with consistently good performances and a knack for big plays. Realistically, he’s a pretty good strong safety who’s somewhat better against the run than he is in coverage. A great athlete and a solid tackler, Bullitt is still improving. Future: Transforming himself from a who’s-he guy to Bob Sanders’ fill-in to a starter in his own right, Bullitt has earned himself a handsome offseason payday. The Colts are likely to tender him at a level that would earn them a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere.


21 Bob Sanders
Participation: 2 games, 2 starts, 75 snaps: 34 run (45.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 41 cover (54.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 1 assist, 1 tackle for loss, 1 missed tackle (33.3 percent), 1 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 4 targets, 2 catches allowed, 15 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 1-29 interceptions, 1 pass defensed, 19.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Signed through 2012 season
Triangle numbers: 5083-204-4.35
Summary: It’s the same old story with Sanders: He’s a once-in-a-generation talent at safety when he’s healthy, but he’s almost never healthy. Currently on injured reserve for the third time in his career, at the end of this season, Sanders will have appeared in just 41 of 80 possible regular-season games and has played hurt in many of them. Future: Many Colts fans have predicted Bullet Bob could become a salary cap casualty, but there’s no cap in 2010 (and his bonuses would make cutting him cost more than keeping him anyway). While it doesn’t seem to make sense to have three multimillionaire safeties on a team already laden with big contracts all over the roster, especially if one isn’t playing, it would be hard to give up on a talent like Sanders. As frustrating as it is to have him hurt all the time, what Sanders brings to the field is phenomenal. The money is basically already spent, so keeping him and hoping that he’ll stay healthy makes sense.


40 Jamie Silva
Participation: 5 games, 0 starts, 21 snaps: 3 run (14.3 percent), 1 rush (4.8 percent), 17 cover (80.9 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 3 tackle, 1 assist, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 1 catches allowed, 6 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 56.3 opp QB rating
Special teams: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2010 season
Triangle numbers: 5106-204-4.78
Summary: Silva’s lack of speed is his only real drawback, but it’s so glaring that he really only sees a few defensive plays, and then only in Dime and Quarter defenses. He’s surprisingly smooth in pass coverage, but is too slow to be left by himself in all but the shortest of zones. Silva’s real value is as a special-teams tackler, at which he is an elite talent. Future: While the Colts love Silva, it’s unrealistic to expect them to play him on defense very often. Still, it’s very likely he can carve out a Larry Izzo-style career as a special-teams weapon.


43 Aaron Francisco
Participation: 6 games, 0 starts, 15 snaps: 5 run (33.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 10 cover (66.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 2 catches allowed, 16 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 139.6 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 0 assists, 1 missed tackle (20.0 percent)
Contract status: Will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6017-211-4.74
Summary: More than a few fans were upset when the Colts cut veteran safety Matt Giordano for Francisco (even giving him Giordano’s No. 43 jersey). And while Francisco has, as expected, played fairly well on special teams, he’s been barely adequate on defense. While Francisco has great reactions and veteran savvy, he’s slow as dirt and can be taken advantage of in coverage. Future: Francisco has some real value as a special teamer, but will have a hard time convincing the Colts or any team to pay more than the minimum for his services.


20 TJ Rushing
Participation: 1 game, 0 starts, 1 snap: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 1 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5103-180-4.41
Summary: Rushing’s listed among the safeties because he appeared at safety for one snap on a prevent defense late in a single game. In fact, it was impossible for me to find a picture of him playing safety for the Colts, so I had to use of him playing corner. To be perfectly honest, Rushing’s not really an NFL-quality defensive back and is worse at safety than he is at corner because of his lack of functional strength and tackling ability. If he's playing on defense, it's only because the Colts have no other healthy bodies to throw back there. Future: Rushing’s future with the team will be determined by the return specialist competition, which I’ll examine in a future post.


45 Devon Hall
Participation: 0 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Practice squad player, will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6026-212-4.48
Summary: An undrafted rookie free agent signed by the Vikings, Hall was a cutdown day casualty. The Colts later signed him to their practice squad. Hall spent his first three seasons at Utah State as an outside linebacker, and was shifted to strong safety as a senior. Not surprisingly, coverage is his weak point, while tackling and hitting are big plusses. Hall’s in the NFL more because of his shocking workout numbers than anything I’ve seen him do in a game. Future: The Colts love giving athletic guys a chance to show what they’ve got, and Hall will likely be given a long look next training camp. Don’t rule out a shift back to outside linebacker.

Conclusion: Under ordinary circumstances, the Colts wouldn’t be able to keep up their embarrassment of wealth. But with 2010 being a cap-free year and with the rules regarding service and unrestricted free agency, they may actually be able to keep Bethea, Bullitt and Sanders.
After those three, Silva is probably a lock for a roster spot, but in all likelihood, will play little on defense. Francisco is likely in his first and last year as a Colt, and even if he does return, he won’t play much safety either. Hall’s a long shot at best and probably has a better future at linebacker than at safety.

Of course, if negotiations with labor bring the NFL back to the previous status quo, Bethea would become an unrestricted free agent. That would make things more difficult for the Colts, but they would likely find a way to keep their top three guys under contract.

The Colts don’t usually sign name free agents from other teams, so any help at safety would come from the draft or undrafted free agents. The Colts don’t have a great draft position – they’ll probably be picking no better than 30th and they are missing their 6th-round pick because of the 2009 draft-day trade that allowed the Colts to select punter Pat McAfee. And they have serious needs at tackle, guard and linebacker to address before they get down to safety. So a small-school prospect like Buffalo’s super smooth Mike Newton or Montana’s speedy but raw Shann Schillinger could be interesting.

Starting positions in doubt

RB: Joseph Addai and Donald Brown
In the long run, Brown will probably be the better back, but the Colts are likely to ease him into the lineup in much the same way they did Addai in 2006. In that arrangement, Dominic Rhodes started every game, even though Addai was a more dynamic runner and receiver and outgained Rhodes substantially (1,406 yards from scrimmage as opposed to Rhodes’ 892) . It’ll be intriguing to see what the team does with them on third down. Although Brown is a more natural receiver, Addai is a far better pass blocker.

H-B: Gijon Robinson, Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi
Robinson did an okay job as a first-year starter, but the Colts didn’t draft Tamme and Santi to sit on the bench. It’ll be a great battle to watch. Robinson has the best hands and is probably the smartest football-wise, but is something of a plodder. Tamme offers the most as a receiving option, and Santi may be the most complete of them all. I know the fan favorite is Tamme, but it would be unwise to count either of the other two out.

WR: Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie
Okay, this isn’t really a starting position battle. But since the Colts use a third wide receiver on the majority of offensive plays, it’s a virtual starting position. Two of the top three will be Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, but the other is in doubt. But the way Bill Polian is raving about Garcon, maybe it isn’t. No doubt Garcon is talented, but so is Collie — and he’s plenty NFL ready. It would surprise me if Garcon were to lose, but it could happen.

RDT: Antonio Johnson, Ed Johnson and Terrance Taylor
If Larry Coyer’s past and the Colts’ recent personnel moves are and indication, they are going to go with one stay-at-home nost tackle type and one quick, penetrator type. The big guy spot has three serious competitors. Antonio Johnson started four games last year, and the Colts showed a remarkable improvement against the run. But if Mookie was the answer, why did they draft two defensive tackles and re-sign former starter Ed Johnson? Big Ed’s not as big and strong as Mookie, but has more football smarts and has been productive for a longer stretch. And the wild card is Taylor, who was a rock against the run in college, but won’t add much pass rush. Most likely, the Colts will open the season with one of the Johnsons in the starting lineup, but don’t be surprised if Taylor’s holding down the spot when the playoffs begin.

LDT: Fili Moala, Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster
The Colts invested a second-round pick in Moala, and expect him to contribute right away. But nothing is ever sure with rookies, and there are holes in his game. The Colts like both Dawson (14 starts last season) and Foster (11 starts), and they could be much more effective with a big-time nose man beside them. I’ll bet that Moala take the starting spot, but at least one of the little guys rotates in.

SLB: Phillip Wheeler and Tyjuan Hagler
Realistically, this is Wheeler’s job to lose. And if he did, it could cause projected weak-side starter Clint Session back to the strong side, with Freddie Keiaho or Jordan Senn stepping in on the weak side.

P: Pat McAfee and Tim Masthay
Yes, Pat McAfee was drafted to take the job, but Colts fans know drafted kickers don’t always work out, and undrafted ones sometimes do.

KR: TJ Rushing, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Chad Simpson
We’ve discussed this before. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out to be Collie.

Of the other positions:

QB: Are you kidding?
TE: I think Dallas Clark’s pretty safe.
RT: Ryan Diem may be replaced, but not soon.
RG: I suppose Mike Pollak could falter, but it’s unlikely. Jamie Richard and Charlie Johnson wait in the wings.
C: Would they invest that much in Jeff Saturday if he wasn’t going to start?
LG: It’d cost too much to keep Ryan Lilja on the bench, and even more to cut him.
LT: People may want competition for Tony Ugoh, but there really isn’t any on the roster.
RDE: Dwight Freeney’s still a star.
LDE: Raheem Brock starts, Robert Mathis relieves, it’s a great system.
WLB: Session should thrive here.
MLB: Gary Brackett will be replaced eventually, but not this camp.
RCB: If he’s healthy, Marlin Jackson will start.
LCB: Kelvin Hayden’s spot, no question.
SS: Bob Sanders owns the spot when he’s healthy, Melvin Bullitt does when he isn’t.
FS: Antoine Bethea has done nothing to endanger his job, and there are no viable challengers.
K: Adam Vinatieri should pull through at least one more year.

Depth chart

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi, 7 Curtis Painter, 10 Chris Crane
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 31 Donald Brown, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere, 83 John Matthews
SE 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 17 Austin Collie, 6 Taj Smith, 15 Brett McDermott
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi, 46 Colin Cloherty
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG 78 Mike Pollak, 61 Jamey Richard, 60 Brandon Barnes
C 63 Jeff Saturday, 53 Steve Justice, 66 Kyle DeVan
LG 65 Ryan Lilja, 73 Jaimie Thomas, 64 Cornelius Lewis
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson, 76 Daniel Federkeil, 69 Tom Pestock
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
NT 99 Antonio Johnson, Ed Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir, 62 Terrance Taylor
UT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster, 95 Fili Moala, 64 Adrian Grady, 97 Pat Kuntz
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
WLB 55 Clint Session, 54 Freddie Keiaho, 51 Jordan Senn, 45 Ramon Humber
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Adam Seward, 57 Mike Okwo, Mike Tuailiili
SLB 50 Philip Wheeler, 56 Tyjuan Hagler, 46 Tyrell Sales
RCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, 30 Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 49 Jerraud Powers, 37 Nick Graham, 38 Brandon Harrison, 16 Jacob Lacey
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 43 Matt Giordano, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 1 Pat McAfee, 2 Tim Masthay
LS 48 Justin Snow

Change, it's the only constant

So the Colts lifted Ed Johnson’s punishment. A year without weed, and Big Ed’s back in uniform. Maybe when the Colts saw former head coach Tony Dungy trying to help Michael Vick get back into polite society, and decided that Ed’s not such a bad dude anyway. The Indy Star says the Colts have lost their moral center. I say that’s a bunch of hooey. Dungy didn’t make the personnel decisions, Bill Polian did. And still does. Ed’s a good player. He made a mistake, and he’s paid for it. Stop pointing fingers.

As a player, Johnson’s more of a nose tackle-type than most Colts DTs. He’s better in the trenches than he is in pursuit. Johnson’s stock and trade is using his strength and shedding ability to dominate in a small area. He’s not much of a pass rusher, but is very explosive off the snap and can catch ball-carriers in backfields on inside running plays.

But his return makes the position quite crowded. Including him but not starting left end Raheem Brock, the Colts now have four DTs on the roster that have started a game for them (Johnson, Antonio Johnson, Keyunta Johnson, Eric Foster), two significant draft picks (Fili Moala and Terrance Taylor), another veteran prospect in Daniel Muir and two undrafted but promising rookies in Pat Kuntz and Adrian Grady. That’s nine players at a position where the team normally carries four.

• O-line coach Howard Mudd’s retirement took me by surprise, but I can understand his reasoning. He was a master at his craft, and will no doubt be missed. It would appear that the overall effectiveness of the Colts’ offensive line will in a large part depend on how well Mudd mentored his former assistant and now successor Pete Metzelaars. I’ve read that Tom Moore is also considering hanging it up. That would put a lot of pressure on Frank Reich.

• Colts.com had a photo of Austin Collie returning kicks. Despite his lack of timed speed, this could be a good idea. At BYU, he went 49-1,277-0 (a 26.06 yard average), showing great agility, elusiveness and tackle-breaking ability. His competition should come from Pierre Garcon (21.59 average in the NFL), TJ Rushing (23.67) and Chad Simpson (22.93). Although Garcon is the incumbent, he’s expected to play a much bigger role on offense this year, and that may preclude him from being the primary return man. Rushing had the job in 2007, but missed 2008 with injury. He’ll probably go to camp as the No. 1 man, but had better win the job outright, because his skills on defense will not keep him on the roster. Simpson’s also on the bubble with Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Mike Hart and probably even late-season sensation Lance Ball. Simpson has speed, but isn’t elusive or sure-handed. Undrafted free agent wideout Brett McDermott (a 25.72 average at a lower level of competition than Collie’s) will also be given a shot, but he has an uphill battle to make the roster. So don’t be surprised if Collie wins the job.

• Every year, I root for the guy who wears my old high school number — 46. He’s also usually an early first cut. This year, Tyrell Sales is wearing it on defense and Colin Cloherty has it on offense. Go guys! Prove ’em all wrong!

• Chris Crane is wearing No. 10, and McDermott is 15.

Four in, two out

Some new prospects in the Colts’ stable:

Chris Crane QB Boston College (6047/231/4.71pd) will probably always be known as the guy who took over for Matt Ryan at BC. A great big kid with a powerful arm, Crane can make all the throws. He has the tools to be an NFL quarterback. But — even though he was a 5th-year senior — he showed little feel for the game. He doesn’t see the pressure, gets rattled and takes too many sacks. And despite his size, speed and athleticism, he’s not a threat to run. If he learns to step up, feel the rush and read defenses, he has a shot.

Mike Tauiliili ILB Duke (5110/240/4.84pd) is an incredible efficient college inside linebacker who may not have the triangle numbers to be effective in the pros. A real weapon against the run at Duke, he made hits all over the field and was an outstanding wrap-up tackler. Despite his lack of overall speed, he got some pretty good drops in zone coverage and saw some success as a blitzer. It’ll be hard for him to overcome his size/speed liabilities, but he could turn out to be a surprise.

Jacob Lacey CB Oklahoma State (5097/177/4.47pd) is a type of player familiar to Colts fans. He’s a skilled corner who, if he had 20 more pounds, he’d be a first-day pick. Good in coverage — both man and zone — and with hands for the pick, Lacey is a smart and tough kid who just lacks the size to be an effective tackler or bum-and-run guy. He tries and tries, but he gets swept away. But, hey, the Colts have done more with less — look at Jason David. Because he’s not a big tackler, I don’t see him doing much on specials, and he’s not a return prospect.

Brett McDermott WR Holy Cross (5116/202/4.61pd) is a viable slot prospect who plays a lot faster than he times. He has nice soft hands, runs good routes and won’t be pushed around. But what I really like about this kid is his open-field elusiveness. While he times like an outside linebacker, he managed a to go 29-746-1 on kick returns (a 25.72 average) in college. He’s not afraid to mix it up on specials, either.

• The Colts made a couple of cuts as well. Mike Dragosavich has a huge leg, but little else to recommend him as an NFL punter or kickoff man. After the team drafted Pat McAfee and signed Tom Masthay, there was no room for Drago. The other cut was Rufus Alexander. I remember the 2007 draft when many Colts fans wanted Indy to draft Alexander because he was small, fast and put up some stats at Oklahoma. I never liked him much, though. Skinny legs.