With all that Combine and free agency stuff out of the way, lets get back to our regularly scheduled program. Let’s look at the tight ends, starting with the stats.
Percentage of passes caught
Robinson 79.17
Santi 76.92
Clark 71.96
Tamme 60.00
Yards per catch
Clark 11.01
Robinson 8.74
Santi 6.40
Tamme 4.00
Yards per target
Clark 7.93
Robinson 6.92
Santi 4.92
Tamme 2.40
Yards after the catch per catch:
Robinson 4.63
Clark 4.13
Santi 4.00
Tamme 1.60
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch:
Clark 61.04
Santi 40.00
Tamme 33.33
Robinson 26.32
44 Dallas Clark
Numbers: 6033/257/4.65c in 03
2008 stats: 15 games played/15 games started (11-4), 77-848-6 receiving, 2-5 penalties
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/4 games started, 6-73-0 receiving, 1-9-0 rushing
Status: Signed through 2013
Clark is one of those great, dynamic players the Colts have built upon. Although he’s not Peyton Manning’s favorite target, he is Manning’s safety net — the guy he looks for when he’s in trouble or he needs some important yards. Because the Colts prefer to play three-wide most of the time but haven’t always had a reliable third-wideout Clark has had to play frequently in the slot. So much, in fact, that FootballOutsiders has sometimes classed him as a wide receiver instead of a tight end. But they’re a little off-base — when Clark plays in the slot, he still runs those short tight end routes. The fact is, he’s a tight end playing outside, not a legitimate slot. It’s not a great solution. Not only aren’t the Colts getting great production from their third wideout, they are squandering Clark’s ridiculous skills at tight end.
47 Gijon Robinson
Numbers: 6006/255/4.71c in 07
2008 stats: 15 games played/14 games started (11-3), 19-166-0 receiving, 2-15 penalties
2008 preseason stats: 5 games played/5 games started, 8-86-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2010
So, the undrafted guy from nowhere (actually, Missouri Western State) who nobody thought would make the roster wound up starting 14 games. Okay, maybe injuries to rookies Tamme and Santi helped that a little, but Robinson acquitted himself pretty well no matter how you slice it. He’s not a strong in-line blocker, but what tight end is these days? Instead, he’s more like a fullback — he can chip and help out at the line, but is really only effective on the move. As a receiver, Robinson is blessed with excellent hands and superb vision. But he’s not very quick off the line and does not to a great job using his hands to free himself from linebackers and safeties. Consequently, most of the times he gets open are very close to the line of scrimmage. Consider that Clark’s average catch came 6.88 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, while Robinson’s came just 4.11 yards deep. But he did show some strength, if not great elusiveness, running after the catch. As Clark is definitive of the Colts’ tight end as pumped-up wide receiver, Robinson is illustrative of the Colts’ H-back as pass-catching fullback playing closer to the line.
86 Tom Santi
Numbers: 6024/250/4.80c in 08
2008 stats: 6 games played/2 games started (1-1), 10-64-1 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 1 game played/1 game started, 1-22-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Santi was a sixth-round draft pick in 2008. That came as a major surprise to many Colts’ fans because the team had already selected Tamme in the fourth. But it actually makes sense because they are different players filling different roles. While Tamme is very much like a poor man’s version of Clark, Santi brings a skill set very similar to Robinson’s, but with more upside. The best blocker of the lot — and very effective on the move and on the second or third level — Santi also has some serious receiving skills. But like Robinson, he doesn’t offer much explosion off the line, nor straight-line speed. Although his rookie season was marred by a shoulder injury that put him on injured reserve, the arrow is definitely pointed upwards on this tough smart kid, and he could battle Robinson for the starting H-back spot this summer.
84 Jacob Tamme
Numbers: 6034/236/4.58c in 08
2008 stats: 12 games played/0 games started, 3-12-0 receiving, 1-11-0 kick return, 2 special-teams tackles, 1-10 penalty
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 game started, 10-133-2 receiving, 1 tackle
Status: Signed through 2011
When the Colts drafted Tamme this year, some fans envisioned him joining the Count Manning’s Flying Circus as a full-time member. And, in the preseason, he showed some of the skills that made him a feared pass-catcher in college. But nagging injuries robbed him of any chance to be much of a contributor in the regular season. If he’s healthy — and he was plenty durable in college — Tamme has moves, agility, vision and hands of a pretty decent NFL wide receiver. The problem is, many NFL wide receivers block better than Tamme, and lots are better than him at beating the jam. Basically, it puts Tamme in between positions. If he were faster, he would fit better outside and if he were stronger, he’d fit better inside. As it stands, Tamme fits in as a back-up to Clark who can also play in motion, in the slot, at fullback and occasionally outside. Another stand-up, solid citizen type, Tamme has also shown an ability to get downfield quickly on coverage teams.
80 Jamie Petrowski
Numbers: 6037/248/4.75e in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 4-81-0 receiving with Tennessee
Status: Signed through 2011
You guys probably know more about this old Sycamore than I do. But I have seen him — mostly when he was a Titan in the preseason — so I know a little. Petrowski has good hands and vision, and is a some natural run-after-the catch instincts. He’s a load to bring down with the ball in his hands, but he’s not exactly Tony Gonzalez when it comes to getting open. As a blocker, he’s a big strong lad who shows potential, but not much refinement in that area. He’s sort of the odd man out in this little group because he’s more of a traditional complete tight end.
What this means for the draft and free agency
While the Colts don’t exactly have an embarrassment of wealth at tight end/H-back, they do run a very solid two-deep at both positions. And while Clark is the graybeard of the group at 29, he’s signed through 2013. Basically, this will be a very hard group for any rookie or free agent to crack.
That’s what makes it unlikely the Colts will draft a tight end, or sign one most of us have heard of. More likely, however, they will invite one or two undrafted free agents like prospects like Utah State’s Rob Myers or East Carolina’s Davon Drew to have someone around who knows the offense in case of injury. And don’t count Petrowski out too soon, either. Last year, everyone I saw this time last year gave Robinson no chance at making the squad, let alone starting. And Petrowski has — from what little I’ve seen — some skills.
Tight ends drafted since Polian took over
2008 Fourth round Jacob Tamme
2008 Sixth round Tom Santi
2004 Third round Ben Hartsock
2003 First round Dallas Clark
Contract information courtest ColtsCap.net
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Out on a limb
Here are some things ColtPlay has learned about Bill Polian’s drafts:
• One or two picks might be short, but none will be fat
• They may not all have the best 40-yard dashes, but most will be among their position’s leaders at the vertical jump
• Few if any will be considered “character risks,” and if they are, that assessment will have been made over one or two incidents, not a consistent type of behavior
• Few in the media will correctly guess the Colts first pick — it’s only happened twice since Polian has taken over, with Rob Morris in 2000 and Joseph Addai in 2007
• Most of the Colts’ picks will be players the media predicted would be picked many picks later — the only guy I remember the Colts taking later than expected was Mike Doss (second round, 2003), and we all know how that worked out
• Enhancing Peyton Manning’s overall effectiveness is always a factor when it comes to first-day picks
• Many will be more intelligent than the average draftee, and with more diverse interests
• Some will be coming off a bad senior year after an outstanding junior year, or will be one-year wonders as seniors
• Fewer will be underclassmen than most teams’ drafts
So with that in mind, here’s the first of what will probably be many mock drafts from ColtPlay this year:
1. Kenny Britt WR Rutgers 6027/218/4.50c
Yeah, the big guy. Britt is not just a big productive receiver but is a real load to bring down after the catch and is also a strong blocker. He could start his career in the slot and eventually move outside. Reminds me a lot of Dwayne Bowe, but with better hands.
2. Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose State 6052/288/4.87c
Lots of teams project him as a 3-4 end, but I like him inside. He has a lot to learn, but is such an excellent athlete that he’s too hard to pass up at this spot. Has a chance to be an absolute destroyer.
3. Xavier Fulton T Illinois 6042/302/5.01c
Yeah, I know all of his drawbacks, but anyone with the athletic potential to be a star NFL left tackle deserves a look. Fulton is a lot like Tony Ugoh (for whom the Colts traded their 2008 first-round pick to select in 2007’s second round), but may be an even better athlete and is certainly more dedicated to his craft.
4. Stephen Hodge S TCU 5115/234/4.58c
I know he’s listed as a safety, but he played more like a linebacker at TCU and compares favorably with former Colts’ star Cato June. Even if he doesn’t develop into a starter — though I bet he will — he was a special-teams demon in college and projects to be one in the pros as well.
5. Ian Johnson RB Boise State 5112/212/4.46c
Am I caught up the college hype and the Cinderfella story that was Boise State? I don’t think so. All Johnson did in college was produce, and critics kept looking for ways to bring him down. They say he wasn’t fast enough. Really? He was the second-fastest back at the Combine. They say he’s no athlete. Is that so? Because he aced all the other drills too. Johnson reminds me a lot of Mike Hart — only with speed. Polian loves backs with that special, indefinable something, and Johnson has it.
6. Jarett Dillard WR Rice 5102/191/4.54c
This year’s ridiculous athlete who the Colts will try to nurture into a player. Can contribute immediately as a returner, and has tremendous upside as a receiver.
6. Justin Brantley P Texas A&M 6031/249/5.00e
Big-legged punter could also take over kickoff job.
7. Jason Williams OLB Western Illinois 6010/241/4.59u
Small-school hit-and-run ’backer has a chance to be a real contributor.
• One or two picks might be short, but none will be fat
• They may not all have the best 40-yard dashes, but most will be among their position’s leaders at the vertical jump
• Few if any will be considered “character risks,” and if they are, that assessment will have been made over one or two incidents, not a consistent type of behavior
• Few in the media will correctly guess the Colts first pick — it’s only happened twice since Polian has taken over, with Rob Morris in 2000 and Joseph Addai in 2007
• Most of the Colts’ picks will be players the media predicted would be picked many picks later — the only guy I remember the Colts taking later than expected was Mike Doss (second round, 2003), and we all know how that worked out
• Enhancing Peyton Manning’s overall effectiveness is always a factor when it comes to first-day picks
• Many will be more intelligent than the average draftee, and with more diverse interests
• Some will be coming off a bad senior year after an outstanding junior year, or will be one-year wonders as seniors
• Fewer will be underclassmen than most teams’ drafts
So with that in mind, here’s the first of what will probably be many mock drafts from ColtPlay this year:
1. Kenny Britt WR Rutgers 6027/218/4.50c
Yeah, the big guy. Britt is not just a big productive receiver but is a real load to bring down after the catch and is also a strong blocker. He could start his career in the slot and eventually move outside. Reminds me a lot of Dwayne Bowe, but with better hands.
2. Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose State 6052/288/4.87c
Lots of teams project him as a 3-4 end, but I like him inside. He has a lot to learn, but is such an excellent athlete that he’s too hard to pass up at this spot. Has a chance to be an absolute destroyer.
3. Xavier Fulton T Illinois 6042/302/5.01c
Yeah, I know all of his drawbacks, but anyone with the athletic potential to be a star NFL left tackle deserves a look. Fulton is a lot like Tony Ugoh (for whom the Colts traded their 2008 first-round pick to select in 2007’s second round), but may be an even better athlete and is certainly more dedicated to his craft.
4. Stephen Hodge S TCU 5115/234/4.58c
I know he’s listed as a safety, but he played more like a linebacker at TCU and compares favorably with former Colts’ star Cato June. Even if he doesn’t develop into a starter — though I bet he will — he was a special-teams demon in college and projects to be one in the pros as well.
5. Ian Johnson RB Boise State 5112/212/4.46c
Am I caught up the college hype and the Cinderfella story that was Boise State? I don’t think so. All Johnson did in college was produce, and critics kept looking for ways to bring him down. They say he wasn’t fast enough. Really? He was the second-fastest back at the Combine. They say he’s no athlete. Is that so? Because he aced all the other drills too. Johnson reminds me a lot of Mike Hart — only with speed. Polian loves backs with that special, indefinable something, and Johnson has it.
6. Jarett Dillard WR Rice 5102/191/4.54c
This year’s ridiculous athlete who the Colts will try to nurture into a player. Can contribute immediately as a returner, and has tremendous upside as a receiver.
6. Justin Brantley P Texas A&M 6031/249/5.00e
Big-legged punter could also take over kickoff job.
7. Jason Williams OLB Western Illinois 6010/241/4.59u
Small-school hit-and-run ’backer has a chance to be a real contributor.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Reid's gone
What happened: Foxsports reported the Broncos have signed Darrell Reid
What it means: Well, Reid offered little as a defensive lineman and the experiment with him as a blocking fullback wasn't a success. But Reid was a competent — if seriously over-hyped —
special-teams player. The Colts can replace his fullbacking duties in house with guys like Gijon Robinson or Tom Santi. They are likely to draft at least one defensive tackle who should be an upgrade over Reid, as well as a young linebacker prospect to take over his spot on specials.
What it means: Well, Reid offered little as a defensive lineman and the experiment with him as a blocking fullback wasn't a success. But Reid was a competent — if seriously over-hyped —
special-teams player. The Colts can replace his fullbacking duties in house with guys like Gijon Robinson or Tom Santi. They are likely to draft at least one defensive tackle who should be an upgrade over Reid, as well as a young linebacker prospect to take over his spot on specials.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Free agency update
What happened: Jeff Saturday re-signed for three years
What it means: Peyton Manning breathes easier. Saturday may not be the biggest and strongest center in the league, but he is the smartest and may also be the toughest. Having him anchor the middle of their line allows the Colts to pick and choose between Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for the two starting guard spots. Lilja — who missed all of 2008 and is due $4.35 million in 2009 — could be a cap cut, while Johnson and perhaps Richard could move outside to tackle.
What happened: Colts decide against offering a tender to restricted free agent Freddie Keiaho
What it means: Look's like Keiaho is leaving a year before most of us expected. The most likely scenario has last year’s Sam Clint Session moving into Keiaho’s Will spot, with 2008 third-round pick Phillip Wheeler taking over on the strongside. But don’t count out 2008 undrafted rookie Jordan Senn taking over the weakside job, and Session staying put. Senn doesn’t have Wheeler’s physical gifts, but he clearly outplayed him as a rookie. The Colts will draft an outside linebacker prospect in the third, fourth or fifth round (like they always do). Keiaho could also be back at less than the tender if he doesn’t get a better offer elsewhere. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that former Colts’ star Cato June — who was recently released by the Bucs — could be re-signed as a stopgap measure.
What happened: Colts offer tenders to exclusive-rights free agents Daniel Muir, Lance Ball, Dan Federkeil and Buster Davis.
What it means: These guys come back and compete for jobs. Muir has been injury-prone, but has some potential as a two-down defensive tackle. Ball was a pleasant surprise last season, showing he could carry the ball with authority and break tackles. He’s no threat to take over a starting position, but is a nice guy to have as part of the committee. Federkeil offers depth at right tackle and both guards spots, but has limited upside. I don't know why Davis is back. He was not very good when he played 2008, but I guess the Colts see something in him I don't.
Other free agents:
UFA S Matt Giordano: No news, unlikely to be back
UFA OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Indy Star says no contract offer from Colts.
UFA CB Keiwan Ratliff: No news, likely to be back after surprisingly effective 2008 season.
UFA DT Darrell Reid: No news, may be back because of his special-teams prowess.
UFA RB Dominic Rhodes: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA P Hunter Smith: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA DE Josh Thomas: His agent says he will test the market.
Depth chart
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak, 76 Dan Federkeil
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja, 74 Charlie Johnson
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 75 Michael Toudouze
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 27 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva, 37 Brannon Condren
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, Travis Keys
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
What it means: Peyton Manning breathes easier. Saturday may not be the biggest and strongest center in the league, but he is the smartest and may also be the toughest. Having him anchor the middle of their line allows the Colts to pick and choose between Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for the two starting guard spots. Lilja — who missed all of 2008 and is due $4.35 million in 2009 — could be a cap cut, while Johnson and perhaps Richard could move outside to tackle.
What happened: Colts decide against offering a tender to restricted free agent Freddie Keiaho
What it means: Look's like Keiaho is leaving a year before most of us expected. The most likely scenario has last year’s Sam Clint Session moving into Keiaho’s Will spot, with 2008 third-round pick Phillip Wheeler taking over on the strongside. But don’t count out 2008 undrafted rookie Jordan Senn taking over the weakside job, and Session staying put. Senn doesn’t have Wheeler’s physical gifts, but he clearly outplayed him as a rookie. The Colts will draft an outside linebacker prospect in the third, fourth or fifth round (like they always do). Keiaho could also be back at less than the tender if he doesn’t get a better offer elsewhere. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that former Colts’ star Cato June — who was recently released by the Bucs — could be re-signed as a stopgap measure.
What happened: Colts offer tenders to exclusive-rights free agents Daniel Muir, Lance Ball, Dan Federkeil and Buster Davis.
What it means: These guys come back and compete for jobs. Muir has been injury-prone, but has some potential as a two-down defensive tackle. Ball was a pleasant surprise last season, showing he could carry the ball with authority and break tackles. He’s no threat to take over a starting position, but is a nice guy to have as part of the committee. Federkeil offers depth at right tackle and both guards spots, but has limited upside. I don't know why Davis is back. He was not very good when he played 2008, but I guess the Colts see something in him I don't.
Other free agents:
UFA S Matt Giordano: No news, unlikely to be back
UFA OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Indy Star says no contract offer from Colts.
UFA CB Keiwan Ratliff: No news, likely to be back after surprisingly effective 2008 season.
UFA DT Darrell Reid: No news, may be back because of his special-teams prowess.
UFA RB Dominic Rhodes: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA P Hunter Smith: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA DE Josh Thomas: His agent says he will test the market.
Depth chart
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak, 76 Dan Federkeil
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja, 74 Charlie Johnson
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 75 Michael Toudouze
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 27 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva, 37 Brannon Condren
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, Travis Keys
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Quick hits
• What luck, the Colts need wide receivers, defensive tackles and offensive tackles and those are the strongest sets of draftable players this year. They could also use another halfback, but all of them — except Boise State’s Ian Johnson — ran disappointing times at the Combine. Maybe that’ll shake someone down to a lower round.
• Even if he could bounce back, and even if he wasn’t going to be 37 before training camp, did anyone really think Marvin Harrison was worth $13.4 million a year? For comparison, Reggie Wayne is due $7.44 million.
• Halfbacks who try to come back to quickly after an ACL injury tend to be disappointing or prone to re-injury. The Colts really like what Mike Hart can do, so they are unlikely to rush him back. I wouldn’t expect to see him on the field before the second half of next season.
• Did you get a load of USC kicker David Buehler at the Combine? Kid ran a 4.56 and repped 25 times. The Colts do have a fondness for athletic kickers, and are in need of a kickoff specialist. Still, if they grab a strong-legged punter like SMU’s Thomas Morstead or Texas A&M’s Justin Brantly, that point could be moot. And I wouldn’t totally count out a return by Hunter Smith, either. I don’t know how many offers he’ll get from other teams, and he is a Hall of Fame-level holder (if that were a category). The only problem is that, as a 10-year veteran, he won’t be cheap.
• Don’t count out little-known receiving prospect Taj Smith who was signed from the practice squad. ColtPlay will have more on him later.
• If I make a mock please feel free to comment and criticize, but don’t tell me “he’ll be available in another round” — nobody knows that. Remember, just days before the 2005 draft Kelvin Hayden was projected as a seventh rounder but was picked in the second, while Brandon Browner was projected as a second rounder, but went undrafted.
• Speaking of the 2005 draft (and how little the media actually knows about players), I was reading one of my old draft guides and it labeled Marlin Jackson as a “major character risk,” while giving top behavior marks for Adam “Pacman” Jones.
You can’t just look at one incident (especially if it’s just alleged). Instead, do a little homework. Look to see if he’s getting his degree, check out his major, find out what he does off the field, look up what his coaches have to say about him and read or listen to his comments in interviews. Even then, it’s just a sketch.
• Don’t expect to see the Colts go after too many interior linemen in this draft. Even if Jeff Saturday departs, they have Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for three starting spots. And the arrow is definitely pointing up on all three second-year players. Of course Johnson could be needed at tackle, and I don’t see why Richard — who is built more like an NBA power forward than an NFL center — doesn’t get a few practice reps there either, although he hasn’t played outside since high school.
• Sure Hayden’s signed, but Jackson and Tim Jennings will be free agents after next season and Keiwan Ratliff is still without a contract. The other corners on the roster have been disappointing at best. Expect one or two picks at this position, but not necessarily a high one.
• Bill Polian said what I always believed about defensive tackles. He said that the prime beef is snapped up in the first 10-15 picks and that value doesn’t re-emerge until the later rounds. So now you have to wonder if he actually believes that (as his draft track record would indicate), or if he’s blowing smoke (as he has many times before). It’s really frustrating.
• With Gijon Robinson and Tom Santi on the roster, the Colts won’t be in the market for an actual fullback again this year. They’ll probably sign at least one as an UDFA, but his chances of making the roster will be slim.
• This year’s tender numbers for restricted free agents are:
$1.010 million/Right of first refusal, original draft round compensation
$1.545 million/Right of first refusal, 2nd round compensation
$2.198 million/Right of first refusal, 1st round compensation
$2.792 million/Right of first refusal, 1st and 3rd round compensation
The Colts’ only current restricted free agents are Dan Federkeil and Freddie Keiaho. The Colts have invested a lot of time in the former U of Calgary Dinosaur and the pride of Medicine Hat, but Federkeil hasn’t really paid them back with great play. He offers decent depth at right tackle and guard, but isn’t really a threat to take over anyone’s starting position. The Colts would probably like to keep him, but I think $1.01 mill might be a bit rich and quite a raise from the $445,000 he made last year. Besides, he was undrafted, so they’d be paying only for right of first refusal. More likely, they offer him no tender, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. That way, they could negotiate a cheaper deal for him, as he’s unlikely to get too many offers elsewhere.
Keiaho is a slightly different story. A capable starter at Will who can play Sam or Mike in a pinch, the Colts will be more inclined to keep him. That is, unless they think that Phillip Wheeler, Jordan Senn or a draft pick is ready to start in his place. The $1.01 million tender would give the Colts a third-round pick as compensation while a second-rounder would cost them an extra $535,000 against the cap (and first rounder would be an extra $1.188 million), so they could well low-ball him. It’s a Colts tradition to keep their restricted free agents by signing them to one-year tenders and then letting them walk. That’s what I see them doing with Keiaho, so the size of the tender will depend on how much interest the Colts think he’ll get on the open market. Fans of other teams are already talking him up on their forums. He’s no star, and he doesn’t fit every defense, but Keiaho is probably worth the $1.545 million tender — at least for one year.
Note: I have since been informed that Federkeil doesn't have enough games uner his belt to be a restricted free agent and is instead an exclusive-rights free agent. So, logically he'll be invited back at the minimum salary.
• Even if he could bounce back, and even if he wasn’t going to be 37 before training camp, did anyone really think Marvin Harrison was worth $13.4 million a year? For comparison, Reggie Wayne is due $7.44 million.
• Halfbacks who try to come back to quickly after an ACL injury tend to be disappointing or prone to re-injury. The Colts really like what Mike Hart can do, so they are unlikely to rush him back. I wouldn’t expect to see him on the field before the second half of next season.
• Did you get a load of USC kicker David Buehler at the Combine? Kid ran a 4.56 and repped 25 times. The Colts do have a fondness for athletic kickers, and are in need of a kickoff specialist. Still, if they grab a strong-legged punter like SMU’s Thomas Morstead or Texas A&M’s Justin Brantly, that point could be moot. And I wouldn’t totally count out a return by Hunter Smith, either. I don’t know how many offers he’ll get from other teams, and he is a Hall of Fame-level holder (if that were a category). The only problem is that, as a 10-year veteran, he won’t be cheap.
• Don’t count out little-known receiving prospect Taj Smith who was signed from the practice squad. ColtPlay will have more on him later.
• If I make a mock please feel free to comment and criticize, but don’t tell me “he’ll be available in another round” — nobody knows that. Remember, just days before the 2005 draft Kelvin Hayden was projected as a seventh rounder but was picked in the second, while Brandon Browner was projected as a second rounder, but went undrafted.
• Speaking of the 2005 draft (and how little the media actually knows about players), I was reading one of my old draft guides and it labeled Marlin Jackson as a “major character risk,” while giving top behavior marks for Adam “Pacman” Jones.
You can’t just look at one incident (especially if it’s just alleged). Instead, do a little homework. Look to see if he’s getting his degree, check out his major, find out what he does off the field, look up what his coaches have to say about him and read or listen to his comments in interviews. Even then, it’s just a sketch.
• Don’t expect to see the Colts go after too many interior linemen in this draft. Even if Jeff Saturday departs, they have Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for three starting spots. And the arrow is definitely pointing up on all three second-year players. Of course Johnson could be needed at tackle, and I don’t see why Richard — who is built more like an NBA power forward than an NFL center — doesn’t get a few practice reps there either, although he hasn’t played outside since high school.
• Sure Hayden’s signed, but Jackson and Tim Jennings will be free agents after next season and Keiwan Ratliff is still without a contract. The other corners on the roster have been disappointing at best. Expect one or two picks at this position, but not necessarily a high one.
• Bill Polian said what I always believed about defensive tackles. He said that the prime beef is snapped up in the first 10-15 picks and that value doesn’t re-emerge until the later rounds. So now you have to wonder if he actually believes that (as his draft track record would indicate), or if he’s blowing smoke (as he has many times before). It’s really frustrating.
• With Gijon Robinson and Tom Santi on the roster, the Colts won’t be in the market for an actual fullback again this year. They’ll probably sign at least one as an UDFA, but his chances of making the roster will be slim.
• This year’s tender numbers for restricted free agents are:
$1.010 million/Right of first refusal, original draft round compensation
$1.545 million/Right of first refusal, 2nd round compensation
$2.198 million/Right of first refusal, 1st round compensation
$2.792 million/Right of first refusal, 1st and 3rd round compensation
The Colts’ only current restricted free agents are Dan Federkeil and Freddie Keiaho. The Colts have invested a lot of time in the former U of Calgary Dinosaur and the pride of Medicine Hat, but Federkeil hasn’t really paid them back with great play. He offers decent depth at right tackle and guard, but isn’t really a threat to take over anyone’s starting position. The Colts would probably like to keep him, but I think $1.01 mill might be a bit rich and quite a raise from the $445,000 he made last year. Besides, he was undrafted, so they’d be paying only for right of first refusal. More likely, they offer him no tender, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. That way, they could negotiate a cheaper deal for him, as he’s unlikely to get too many offers elsewhere.
Keiaho is a slightly different story. A capable starter at Will who can play Sam or Mike in a pinch, the Colts will be more inclined to keep him. That is, unless they think that Phillip Wheeler, Jordan Senn or a draft pick is ready to start in his place. The $1.01 million tender would give the Colts a third-round pick as compensation while a second-rounder would cost them an extra $535,000 against the cap (and first rounder would be an extra $1.188 million), so they could well low-ball him. It’s a Colts tradition to keep their restricted free agents by signing them to one-year tenders and then letting them walk. That’s what I see them doing with Keiaho, so the size of the tender will depend on how much interest the Colts think he’ll get on the open market. Fans of other teams are already talking him up on their forums. He’s no star, and he doesn’t fit every defense, but Keiaho is probably worth the $1.545 million tender — at least for one year.
Note: I have since been informed that Federkeil doesn't have enough games uner his belt to be a restricted free agent and is instead an exclusive-rights free agent. So, logically he'll be invited back at the minimum salary.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Updated depth chart
After three moves: 1) Dragosavich signed, 2) Smith's contract voided, and 3) Hayden re-signed
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Know Your Colts: Wide Receivers
This installment covers the Colts’ wide receivers. And to understand the wide receivers, it’s essential we look at the stats.
Percentage of passes caught
Garcon 100.00
Gonzalez 72.15
Wayne 63.08
Harrison 56.07
Hall 25.00
Yards per catch
Wayne 13.96
Gonzalez 11.65
Harrison 10.60
Hall 9.00
Garcon 5.75
Yards per target
Wayne 8.81
Gonzalez 8.41
Harrison 5.94
Garcon 5.75
Hall 2.25
Yards after the catch per catch:
Wayne 4.07
Gonzalez 3.25
Harrison 2.75
Hall 0.00
Garcon -0.25
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch:
Hall 100.00
Wayne 84.15
Harrison 76.67
Gonzalez 70.18
Garcon 50.00
Drops per 100 catchable balls
Garcon 0.00
Hall 0.00
Harrison 1.64
Wayne 3.53
Gonzalez 11.11
Catches up the middle
Wayne 11-167-2
Gonzalez 8-72-0
Harrison 2-18-0
Garcon 0-0-0
Hall 0-0-0
87 Reggie Wayne
Numbers: 6002/198/4.43c in 01
2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 82-1,145-6 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/4 games started, 3-28-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
I don’t have a lot to say about Wayne. He’s an all-time great at the top of his game. His numbers were down last season because of various problems that plagued the offense as a whole, but Wayne shouldn’t be blamed at all. In fact, he actually looked much better than he had in recent years — and made shocking play after shocking play.
88 Marvin Harrison
Numbers: 5116/187/4.37c in 96
2008 stats: 15 games played/15 games started (11-4), 60-636-5 receiving, 1-3-0 kick return, 1-2-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 1/1 fumbles/lost
2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 6-38-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Don’t tell me about history. I’ve been a Colts fan since the Bert Jones days, and I’ve seen pretty well every play Marvin Harrison has made. He’s going to Canton.
That said, if a lesser-known receiver turned in the season Harrison did in 2008, fans would be calling for his head. Look at the stats above. Despite being generally pretty healthy, Harrison’s 2008 was far below what he normally produces. And before you blame Manning’s injury or the impotent running game, look at the stats again — Harrison was clearly the Colts’ third-best wide receiver.
Maybe he bounces back now that he knows he’s not going to prison for the kerfuffle in Philadelphia. But I don’t think the Colts give him the chance. Polian is making noise about how he’d like to have him back, but I’m pretty sure that’s one of his many smokescreens. Harrison is scheduled to make $13.4 million next year. That’s a hell of a lot of money for a third wide receiver. And he’ll turn 37 before the season starts. He could retire, but more likely the Colts will cut him and we’ll sadly watch him play out the string with the Titans, Vikings, Bears or his hometown Eagles. Remember, even Jerry Rice played for five seasons (with three different teams) after the 49ers parted ways with him.
If Harrison somehow returns to the Colts, watch for him to be edged out of the No. 2 job by Gonzalez.
11 Anthony Gonzalez
Numbers: 6000/193/4.44c in 07
2008 stats: 16 games played/2 games started (2-0), 57-664-5 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/1 game started, 7-78-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Even in the very unlikely scenario Harrison returns to the Colts, Gonzalez will probably supplant him as the No. 2 wideout. Gonzo actually reminds me a little of a young Harrison with his concentration and work ethic. But Gonzo has not been blessed with Harrison’s speed or overall athleticism. He have a harder time gaining separation than Harrison did in his prime, but he also does less when he has the ball in hands. But because he does the little things so perfectly well, Gonzalez can handily fulfill the role of No. 2 receiver behind Reggie Wayne, just as Wayne did behind Harrison. But I’m not entirely sold on the idea that Gonzalez can supplant Wayne as No. 1 when the time comes.
85 Pierre Garcon
Numbers: 5117/210/4.42c in 08
2008 stats: 14 games played/0 games started, 4-23-0 receiving, 22-475-0 kick returns, 1-5-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 12 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 7-74-0 receiving, 5-143-0 kick returns, 9-45-0 punt returns (0 fair catches), 1/0 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Status: Signed through 2011
Hugely productive at DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garcon’s rookie season went fairly predictably. He was a sloppy route runner, wasn’t creative on them and did little to help out his quarterback when he was in trouble. Garcon didn’t play anywhere near his timed speed, and showed little understanding of pro defenses. On the plus side, he displayed natural hands, great athleticism and a surprising ability to block for the run.
Many of Garcon’s shortcomings should be mitigated with experience, and he looks like he belongs in the NFL. Still, at best, his future is as a possession receiver because I don’t see him playing any faster. He’ll break a few long gains when he’s got an advantageous match up, but he has little deep speed or short-area explosiveness and will mostly be depended on to move the chains in the pros.
Does that make him the slot man should Harrison get cut and Gonzalez grab the No. 2 role? I’m not sure. He looks more like an outside receiver to me, but is an intelligent runner who could succeed inside if he has the toughness. Besides, his blocking would be a boon inside. He’s certainly better than Devin Aromashodu — the guy everybody was talking up at this time last year — but he’ll have to show me something more than 4-23-0 in 14 games before I think he’ll ever be more a No. 4 wideout.
Since Garcon offers great value as a special teamer — both as a returner and coverage guy, I also don’t see him being cut anytime soon.
83 Roy Hall
Numbers: 6020/229/4.41pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 game played/0 game started, 1-9-0 receiving, 3 special-teams tackles
2008 preseason stats: 2 games played/0 games started, 6-51-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2010
When Hall was drafted, the Colts’ faithful hailed him as nine feet tall, 500 pounds and able to cover forty yards in a single step. I wondered where I remembered his name from — was it the same Roy Hall who was Ohio State’s fifth-best wide receiver? Was he that guy whose college career highlight was injuring teammate Ted Ginn Jr. while celebrating a Ginn touchdown? Yes it was.
In two injury-plagued years as a Colt, Hall has played in seven games and caught one pass for nine yards. And that was in one of those meaningless Games 16s against the Titans that pitted scrub against scrub. When he did play (both in preseason and the regular season), Hall didn’t exactly impress. He inexpertly ran short routes and did not seem like a natural pass-catcher or runner with the ball.
That said, he did look very good on kick coverage teams when he played on them. But if he can’t play wide receiver without getting injured, how will he survive the terror that is NFL special teams?
14 Sam Giguere
Numbers: 5110/220/4.41pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-22-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Unlike many Colts observers, I was lucky enough to see Giguere play in college. And he was something special. But if Garcon came from DIII, Giguere came from DIV or even DV. Not only is the level of competition a lot lower, even the rules are different. But Giguere is a superior athlete, as evidenced by his ridiculous workout numbers — 4.41 forty, 40-inch vertical, 4.14 short shuttle and 10’1 long jump.
Giguere didn’t play in the regular season and did little impressive in the preseason, but hardly a day went by in camp when someone didn’t rave about some incredible thing Giguere did.
It’s probably too early to think Giguere will do anything significant with the Colts this year, but since he cost virtually nothing and could be something special down the road, it’ll be interesting to see what he does this summer.
6 Taj Smith
Numbers: 6003/188/4.48pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-13-0 receiving with Green Bay
Status: Signed through 2010
Smith isn’t very fast and his hands are only acceptable by NFL standards. So why is he in camp? Well, he does everything else right. Despite his skinny frame, Smith is very strong. He easily beats jams and can’t be knocked off his routes by most defensive backs. Smith is a far better route-runner than he gets credit for, and has improved in this area throughout his career. His agility, athleticism and body control are unworldly. He gets a lot of criticism because of drops, but if you look at the video, most of them are the result of him making an extra effort to catch a ball that he had no chance of catching. Smith is absolutely unafraid of going over the middle. He’s an elusive runner who makes tough yards after the catch and can even make an unwary safety pay for his tackle attempt. This guy even blocks well.
Smith had 44 catches for an excellent 822 yards and five scores on a tragic Syracuse team in 2007. He left Syracuse as a 24-year-old junior and declared for the draft. He wasn’t chosen, but signed with the Packers. An observer I know there — who watched their camp and preseason closely — was surprised he was cut.
Many people consider Smith something of a character risk because of allegations he was kicked off both his high school and JuCo teams, but I’m not so sure. Smith not only earned his degree at Syracuse, but also has a job waiting for him as a child counselor at Beth Israel Medical Center in his hometown of Newark, N.J. He scored very well in his Wonderlic and other tests, and comes across as mature and intelligent in interviews.
I’m not saying Smith is the second coming of Anquan Boldin, but — like many undrafted free agents signed by the Colts — he’s a lot more interesting than you’d think just by looking at his stat line.
What this means for the draft and free agency
If we assume the Coits will let Harrison go, then he will need to be replaced. Of course, Gonzalez is the heir apparent. Okay, so who replaces Gonzalez? Some observers may think replacing a third receiver is not that big a deal; but if they do, they’re not paying attention.
Every since Tom Moore took over as offensive coordinator in 1998, the Colts have led the league in the use of three wideouts every single season. In fact, the Colts generally play three wide more than 70 percent of the time on offense. To put that in perspective, Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Mathis plays about 50 percent of defensive snaps. In essence, when you’re talking about the Colts third wide receiver, you’re talking about a starter.
So, is there a starter among Garcon, Hall, Giguere and Smith? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I like all of them (in varying degrees), but none is the explosive, score-from-anywhere threat the Colts need in the slot. Remember those brief moments when Brandon Stokley was both healthy and under contract? Man, that was great; the Colts’ offense was simply unstoppable. And it could happen again.
Or maybe it’s just me. Last season — when Harrison’s contribution was more of a given — I wanted the Colts to draft Houston’s Donnie Avery. It would have worked out okay. Despite starting just 12 games in the Rams’ pathetic popgun offense, Avery caught 53-674-3 (and ran for 10-69-1), which compares pretty favorably with Harrison’s 60-636-5 in the 15 starts in the Colts’ rather plush attack. But then, Avery was gone by the time the Colts picked, and — if he wasn’t and they took him — the Colts wouldn’t have Mike Pollak.
If the Colts do go with an explosive slot guy/return man (as I would recommend), they have two great prospects at the top of the draft Miami’s Percy Harvin and Penn State’s Derrick Williams. Both are the kind of electric weapon that would cause headaches for defensive coordinators, especially if they wound up in an offense like Indy’s. Just as likely, though, is that the Colts give the role to Garcon. And, if he falters, you could see Dallas Clark or even Jacob Tamme take over in the slot.
Wide receivers drafted by the Colts since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Pierre Garcon
2007 First Anthony Gonzalez
2007 Fifth Roy Hall
2001 First Reggie Wayne
1998 Second Jerome Pathon
1998 Third E.G. Green
Percentage of passes caught
Garcon 100.00
Gonzalez 72.15
Wayne 63.08
Harrison 56.07
Hall 25.00
Yards per catch
Wayne 13.96
Gonzalez 11.65
Harrison 10.60
Hall 9.00
Garcon 5.75
Yards per target
Wayne 8.81
Gonzalez 8.41
Harrison 5.94
Garcon 5.75
Hall 2.25
Yards after the catch per catch:
Wayne 4.07
Gonzalez 3.25
Harrison 2.75
Hall 0.00
Garcon -0.25
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch:
Hall 100.00
Wayne 84.15
Harrison 76.67
Gonzalez 70.18
Garcon 50.00
Drops per 100 catchable balls
Garcon 0.00
Hall 0.00
Harrison 1.64
Wayne 3.53
Gonzalez 11.11
Catches up the middle
Wayne 11-167-2
Gonzalez 8-72-0
Harrison 2-18-0
Garcon 0-0-0
Hall 0-0-0
87 Reggie Wayne
Numbers: 6002/198/4.43c in 01
2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 82-1,145-6 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/4 games started, 3-28-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
I don’t have a lot to say about Wayne. He’s an all-time great at the top of his game. His numbers were down last season because of various problems that plagued the offense as a whole, but Wayne shouldn’t be blamed at all. In fact, he actually looked much better than he had in recent years — and made shocking play after shocking play.
88 Marvin Harrison
Numbers: 5116/187/4.37c in 96
2008 stats: 15 games played/15 games started (11-4), 60-636-5 receiving, 1-3-0 kick return, 1-2-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 1/1 fumbles/lost
2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 6-38-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Don’t tell me about history. I’ve been a Colts fan since the Bert Jones days, and I’ve seen pretty well every play Marvin Harrison has made. He’s going to Canton.
That said, if a lesser-known receiver turned in the season Harrison did in 2008, fans would be calling for his head. Look at the stats above. Despite being generally pretty healthy, Harrison’s 2008 was far below what he normally produces. And before you blame Manning’s injury or the impotent running game, look at the stats again — Harrison was clearly the Colts’ third-best wide receiver.
Maybe he bounces back now that he knows he’s not going to prison for the kerfuffle in Philadelphia. But I don’t think the Colts give him the chance. Polian is making noise about how he’d like to have him back, but I’m pretty sure that’s one of his many smokescreens. Harrison is scheduled to make $13.4 million next year. That’s a hell of a lot of money for a third wide receiver. And he’ll turn 37 before the season starts. He could retire, but more likely the Colts will cut him and we’ll sadly watch him play out the string with the Titans, Vikings, Bears or his hometown Eagles. Remember, even Jerry Rice played for five seasons (with three different teams) after the 49ers parted ways with him.
If Harrison somehow returns to the Colts, watch for him to be edged out of the No. 2 job by Gonzalez.
11 Anthony Gonzalez
Numbers: 6000/193/4.44c in 07
2008 stats: 16 games played/2 games started (2-0), 57-664-5 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/1 game started, 7-78-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Even in the very unlikely scenario Harrison returns to the Colts, Gonzalez will probably supplant him as the No. 2 wideout. Gonzo actually reminds me a little of a young Harrison with his concentration and work ethic. But Gonzo has not been blessed with Harrison’s speed or overall athleticism. He have a harder time gaining separation than Harrison did in his prime, but he also does less when he has the ball in hands. But because he does the little things so perfectly well, Gonzalez can handily fulfill the role of No. 2 receiver behind Reggie Wayne, just as Wayne did behind Harrison. But I’m not entirely sold on the idea that Gonzalez can supplant Wayne as No. 1 when the time comes.
85 Pierre Garcon
Numbers: 5117/210/4.42c in 08
2008 stats: 14 games played/0 games started, 4-23-0 receiving, 22-475-0 kick returns, 1-5-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 12 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 7-74-0 receiving, 5-143-0 kick returns, 9-45-0 punt returns (0 fair catches), 1/0 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Status: Signed through 2011
Hugely productive at DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garcon’s rookie season went fairly predictably. He was a sloppy route runner, wasn’t creative on them and did little to help out his quarterback when he was in trouble. Garcon didn’t play anywhere near his timed speed, and showed little understanding of pro defenses. On the plus side, he displayed natural hands, great athleticism and a surprising ability to block for the run.
Many of Garcon’s shortcomings should be mitigated with experience, and he looks like he belongs in the NFL. Still, at best, his future is as a possession receiver because I don’t see him playing any faster. He’ll break a few long gains when he’s got an advantageous match up, but he has little deep speed or short-area explosiveness and will mostly be depended on to move the chains in the pros.
Does that make him the slot man should Harrison get cut and Gonzalez grab the No. 2 role? I’m not sure. He looks more like an outside receiver to me, but is an intelligent runner who could succeed inside if he has the toughness. Besides, his blocking would be a boon inside. He’s certainly better than Devin Aromashodu — the guy everybody was talking up at this time last year — but he’ll have to show me something more than 4-23-0 in 14 games before I think he’ll ever be more a No. 4 wideout.
Since Garcon offers great value as a special teamer — both as a returner and coverage guy, I also don’t see him being cut anytime soon.
83 Roy Hall
Numbers: 6020/229/4.41pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 game played/0 game started, 1-9-0 receiving, 3 special-teams tackles
2008 preseason stats: 2 games played/0 games started, 6-51-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2010
When Hall was drafted, the Colts’ faithful hailed him as nine feet tall, 500 pounds and able to cover forty yards in a single step. I wondered where I remembered his name from — was it the same Roy Hall who was Ohio State’s fifth-best wide receiver? Was he that guy whose college career highlight was injuring teammate Ted Ginn Jr. while celebrating a Ginn touchdown? Yes it was.
In two injury-plagued years as a Colt, Hall has played in seven games and caught one pass for nine yards. And that was in one of those meaningless Games 16s against the Titans that pitted scrub against scrub. When he did play (both in preseason and the regular season), Hall didn’t exactly impress. He inexpertly ran short routes and did not seem like a natural pass-catcher or runner with the ball.
That said, he did look very good on kick coverage teams when he played on them. But if he can’t play wide receiver without getting injured, how will he survive the terror that is NFL special teams?
14 Sam Giguere
Numbers: 5110/220/4.41pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-22-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Unlike many Colts observers, I was lucky enough to see Giguere play in college. And he was something special. But if Garcon came from DIII, Giguere came from DIV or even DV. Not only is the level of competition a lot lower, even the rules are different. But Giguere is a superior athlete, as evidenced by his ridiculous workout numbers — 4.41 forty, 40-inch vertical, 4.14 short shuttle and 10’1 long jump.
Giguere didn’t play in the regular season and did little impressive in the preseason, but hardly a day went by in camp when someone didn’t rave about some incredible thing Giguere did.
It’s probably too early to think Giguere will do anything significant with the Colts this year, but since he cost virtually nothing and could be something special down the road, it’ll be interesting to see what he does this summer.
6 Taj Smith
Numbers: 6003/188/4.48pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-13-0 receiving with Green Bay
Status: Signed through 2010
Smith isn’t very fast and his hands are only acceptable by NFL standards. So why is he in camp? Well, he does everything else right. Despite his skinny frame, Smith is very strong. He easily beats jams and can’t be knocked off his routes by most defensive backs. Smith is a far better route-runner than he gets credit for, and has improved in this area throughout his career. His agility, athleticism and body control are unworldly. He gets a lot of criticism because of drops, but if you look at the video, most of them are the result of him making an extra effort to catch a ball that he had no chance of catching. Smith is absolutely unafraid of going over the middle. He’s an elusive runner who makes tough yards after the catch and can even make an unwary safety pay for his tackle attempt. This guy even blocks well.
Smith had 44 catches for an excellent 822 yards and five scores on a tragic Syracuse team in 2007. He left Syracuse as a 24-year-old junior and declared for the draft. He wasn’t chosen, but signed with the Packers. An observer I know there — who watched their camp and preseason closely — was surprised he was cut.
Many people consider Smith something of a character risk because of allegations he was kicked off both his high school and JuCo teams, but I’m not so sure. Smith not only earned his degree at Syracuse, but also has a job waiting for him as a child counselor at Beth Israel Medical Center in his hometown of Newark, N.J. He scored very well in his Wonderlic and other tests, and comes across as mature and intelligent in interviews.
I’m not saying Smith is the second coming of Anquan Boldin, but — like many undrafted free agents signed by the Colts — he’s a lot more interesting than you’d think just by looking at his stat line.
What this means for the draft and free agency
If we assume the Coits will let Harrison go, then he will need to be replaced. Of course, Gonzalez is the heir apparent. Okay, so who replaces Gonzalez? Some observers may think replacing a third receiver is not that big a deal; but if they do, they’re not paying attention.
Every since Tom Moore took over as offensive coordinator in 1998, the Colts have led the league in the use of three wideouts every single season. In fact, the Colts generally play three wide more than 70 percent of the time on offense. To put that in perspective, Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Mathis plays about 50 percent of defensive snaps. In essence, when you’re talking about the Colts third wide receiver, you’re talking about a starter.
So, is there a starter among Garcon, Hall, Giguere and Smith? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I like all of them (in varying degrees), but none is the explosive, score-from-anywhere threat the Colts need in the slot. Remember those brief moments when Brandon Stokley was both healthy and under contract? Man, that was great; the Colts’ offense was simply unstoppable. And it could happen again.
Or maybe it’s just me. Last season — when Harrison’s contribution was more of a given — I wanted the Colts to draft Houston’s Donnie Avery. It would have worked out okay. Despite starting just 12 games in the Rams’ pathetic popgun offense, Avery caught 53-674-3 (and ran for 10-69-1), which compares pretty favorably with Harrison’s 60-636-5 in the 15 starts in the Colts’ rather plush attack. But then, Avery was gone by the time the Colts picked, and — if he wasn’t and they took him — the Colts wouldn’t have Mike Pollak.
If the Colts do go with an explosive slot guy/return man (as I would recommend), they have two great prospects at the top of the draft Miami’s Percy Harvin and Penn State’s Derrick Williams. Both are the kind of electric weapon that would cause headaches for defensive coordinators, especially if they wound up in an offense like Indy’s. Just as likely, though, is that the Colts give the role to Garcon. And, if he falters, you could see Dallas Clark or even Jacob Tamme take over in the slot.
Wide receivers drafted by the Colts since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Pierre Garcon
2007 First Anthony Gonzalez
2007 Fifth Roy Hall
2001 First Reggie Wayne
1998 Second Jerome Pathon
1998 Third E.G. Green
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)