The curse of the third round

People talk about Bill Polian’s poor record in the third round, so I thought ColtPlay should take a look.

Polian’s third-round picks with the Colts:

2008 93rd pick Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
• jury’s still out, but so far he looks pretty good
2007 95th pick Daymeion Hughes DB California
• bumped from No. 4 corner spot by waiver-wire pickup Keiwan Ratliff, and is in danger of losing his roster spot
2007 98th pick Quinn Pitcock DT Ohio State
• retired unexpectedly after promising rookie season
2006 94th pick Freddie Keiaho LB San Diego State
• quality starter who could play for just about team
2005 92nd pick Vincent ‘Sweet Pea’ Burns DE Kentucky
• hailed as the next John Randle, Burns was ineffective the few times he was healthy enough to play; recorded zero tackles in two NFL seasons
2004 68th pick Ben Hartsock TE Ohio State
• rarely played behind Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, he later signed with Tennessee and then later Atlanta; In six NFL seasons, he has caught 27-273-0, including just 6-41-0 in three seasons with the Colts
2004 69th pick Gilbert Gardner (left) LB Purdue

• played a lot for the Colts early in his career, but didn’t distinguish himself; later bounced around with Tennessee, Detroit and, finally, Chicago; in the last three seasons, he has played in 16 games, starting none
2003 90th pick Donald Strickland DB Colorado
• played okay for the Colts before he made a big stink about being healthy enough to play while on IR, which forced the Colts to waive him, he later played a bit with the Eagles and 49ers — he’s still there, and even starts from time to time
2002 74th pick Joseph Jefferson DB Western Kentucky
• big, fast small-schooler showed flashes of greatness, but couldn’t stay healthy enough to contribute; played 27 of a possible 64 games
2001 91st pick Cory Bird DB Virginia Tech
• decent special teamer was too sloppy in coverage to play much on defense; played 45 games for Colts, starting eight
2000 91st pick David Macklin DB Penn State
• spent four years with Colts as an on-again, off-again starter, bounced around with Arizona, Washington, St. Louis and Kansas City, where he’s now the No. 5 corner
1999 63rd pick Brandon Burlsworth G Arkansas
• a tragic fatal accident prevented Burlsworth from ever playing a down with the Colts
1998 71st pick E.G. Green WR Florida State
• another promising player whose career was derailed by injury — caught 54-665-2 in three seasons with the Colts

Polian’s third-round picks with Carolina

1997 87th pick Kinnon Tatum LB Notre Dame
1996 73rd pick Winslow Oliver RB New Mexico
1996 88th pick J.C. Price DT Virginia Tech

Polian’s third-round picks with Buffalo

1992 83rd pick Keith Goganious LB Penn State
1991 82nd pick Darryl Wren DB Pittsburg State
1990 69th pick Glenn Parker T Arizona
1988 65th pick Bernard Fored WR Central Florida
1987 60th pick David Brandon LB Memphis State
1987 78th pick Jamie Mueller RB Benedictine
1986 77th pick Leonard Burton C South Carolina

Conclusion

We’ll I’ll be damned. Polian really has been absolutely horrible in the third round. If you subtract Wheeler because it’s too early to tell how good he is, the master evaluator has hit on just two (Keiaho and Parker) of 23 third-round picks. There were some okay players (like Macklin, Strickland and Mueller) and there were some if-only players (Jefferson, Green) and there was one nobody-could-have-predicted (Burlsworth), but when it comes down to it, the third round has been a dead zone for Polian.

So does that mean we should just forget any player Polian drafts in the third round this year? Quite the opposite — he’s due.

Coyer the Destroyer?

If the Colts have name Larry Coyer (left) as their new defensive coordinator, then what does that mean for personnel decisions? Business as usual.

Roster addition

The Colts announced the signing of former Bears third-round pick inside linebacker Mike Okwo. I'll have more details about him in the next edition of Know Your Colts.

Know Your Colts: Outside Linebackers

This is No. 3 in ColtPlay's Know Your Colts series. This one deals with the outside linebackers.


54 Freddy Keiaho
Numbers: 5112/224/4.68pd in 06
2008 stats: 14 GP/14 GS (10-4 WLB), 72 TK, 42 AT, 5-5 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 FR, 1 STT, 2-16 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 3 TK, 2 AT, 0.5-0.5 TFL
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a big raise

Keiaho is the definitive Colts linebacker. He’s fast and aggressive. He can bolt through a gap like a running back and stop a play dead. He hits hard, and can cause a fumble. He’s also undersized and can be ridden out of the any by a determined blocker. Against the pass, he blitzes maybe three or four times a year and falls into zone coverage the rest of the time.

Of course, Colts linebackers don’t come out of a factory, and Keiaho has idiosyncrasies just like Cato June and David Thornton and all the others did. The one thing that stands out about Keiaho as opposed to the others is his aggressiveness. Optimists call it a great motor, pessimists call is a lack of discipline — and they’re both right. It has its plusses and minuses; he hits with fury and he misses tackles with equal fury. Yeah, Keiaho misses some tackles. But isn’t that what safeties are for in the Cover-2?

His coverage abilities are very much like his abilities against the run. He’s a bit wild, but usually effective. Keiaho isn’t fast enough to match up with the best pass-catching halfbacks, but can usually handle a tight end and scares the hell out of wide receivers silly enough to encroach on his territory.

Historically, the biggest complaint against Keiaho has been his ability to diagnose plays. He has improved greatly in this regard, but it’s still his weak spot, and he still relies on his short-area quickness to overcome it.

It may just be my opinion, but I actually prefer Keiaho at middle linebacker — where he played at college and a few times last season (more on that in a later post) — than on the weakside. He sees gaps better in there, and is responsible for a different kind of space in coverage.


55 Clint Session
Numbers: 5110/236/4.52c in 07
2008 stats: 16 GP/15 GS (11-4 SLB), 70 TK, 29 AT, 10-15 TFL, 2 PBU, 3 FF, 4 STT
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/1 GS, 5 TK, 2-4 TFL, 1 STA
Status: Signed through 2010

If Keiaho is the portrait of a Colts linebacker, Session is a caricature of one. Oh, he’s plenty quick and slippery, finding himself behind opponents’ offensive linemen with shocking regularity. And he does pack a huge punch when he hits; he jars bodies and makes balls come loose. So what’s not to like? Well, he misses tackles with disheartening regularity, finds it difficult to shed even the least skilled of blockers and can be absolutely erased if a guard or center gets so much as a finger on him.

While he can be a weapon against the run, Session is something of a liability against the pass. Trapped in a defense that won’t allow him to blitz (although I think he’d be only occasionally effective at it anyway), Session is forced into coverage a lot, and it is not his forte. He’ s fast and quick and gets nice deep drops, but he just hasn’t mastered the art. At the beginning of his rookie season, his coverage skills were an atrocity, since then, they have improved to disaster, then to embarrassment and now seemed to have peaked at almost adequate.


56 Tyjuan Hagler
Numbers: 5115/236/4.62c in 05
2008 stats: 8 GP/3 GS (2-0 WLB, 0-1 SS), 13 TK, 8 AT, 1 FF, 8 STT, 4 STA
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Unrestricted free agent

If Keiaho is caffeinated and Session is your linebacker on crack — that’s just a metaphor, kids, I’m not accusing Session, a fine young man from what I know about him, of taking illegal substances — then Hagler is the sugar-free version. He’s similar to the other guys, but less so in every way. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’s also less likely to miss tackles, botch assignments or blow coverages. It’s as though he’s missing the spectacular gene, but was born with two in the reliability department.

He is, however, only reliable when he is on the field. Since has drafted by the Colts in 2005, he has played in just 30 of 64 possible regular-season games, and never more than 12 games in a single season. And even when he has played, he’s often been nicked up.

Because of the frequency of his injuries, the Colts have already gotten used to life without Hagler. That should continue. because Hagler is an unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to be re-signed. As a rule, the Colts don’t re-sign their free-agent linebackers (even starters, and Hagler isn’t one), and Polian — Bob Sanders notwithstanding — rarely invests much money in guys with injury problems.

There is a chance Hagler could be back in Coltland, but it’s very slim. Should no team take a chance on him or if he’s cut in the summer, the Colts could invite him back, especially if they have injuries at linebacker.


51 Jordan Senn
Numbers: 5110/224/4.53pd in 08
2008 stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 5 TK, 2 AT, 1-1 TFL, 11 STT, 5 STA, 1-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/2 GS, 26 TK, 2 AT, TFL 1-1, STT
Status: Signed through 2010

It’s easy to understand why Colts fans didn’t know who Senn was before the Colts signed him. I mean, most draft magazines didn’t mention him and the few draft sites that did rated him as about the 40th-best strong safety. In fact, he was a ridiculously productive linebacker at little-watched Portland State. But when the experts saw him measure in at less than six feet, they banished him to the obscurity of maybe he’s a safety. Colts fans called him “camp fodder,” and predicted him to be cut every time he turned around.

Then he got some serious playing time in the preseason and distinguished himself. Sure, lots of his tackles came a few yards downfield, but much of that could be attributed to really, really poor defensive line play. Senn, on the other hand, showed good pursuit, play diagnosis and zone coverage abilities. And, like every good Colts linebacker, he had trouble shedding.

When the last cuts came around, the fans still called for his head. They preferred Ramon Guzman and Terna Nande, even though Senn had clearly outplayed them both.

In the regular season, Senn played mainly on special teams. On them, he distinguished himself as perhaps the team’s most consistent performer, though others got more press. He didn’t play much on defense, but when he did, it was generally in nickel situations. And he didn’t do bad at all for an undersized unknown out of Nowhere U, showing good range and quickness.

So, where does this leave him? I’m not sure he’s a future starter, but I wouldn’t rule it out. He made an impressive transition from Portland State to NFL reserve, but it may be a bigger leap to NFL starter. The Colts have started worse (Senn’s already much better than Gilbert Gardner), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

But I’m sure Senn won’t just step right into Hagler’s do-it-all swing backup position because his lack of bulk probably limits him to the weakside or nickel situations.

His real value, right now at least, is as a special teamer. Though he seems to be quite gregarious off the field, Senn brings an assassin’s mentality to kick coverage. Can he build a career in Indy as a part-time linebacker and full-time special teamer? I don’t see why not.


50 Philip Wheeler
Numbers: 6017/248/4.76c4.66pd in 08
2008 stats: 8 GP/0 GS 2 TK, 1 AT, 1-2 TFL, 11 STT, 3 STA, 2-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 1 GP/1 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT
Status: Signed through 2011

If you’re like most Colts fans, the selection of Wheeler in the last draft probably mystified you. It was glaringly obvious that an heir apparent for longtime Mike starter Gary Brackett was needed, and the Colts almost always grab an outside linebacker or two every draft, but Wheeler didn’t seem to fit the bill. I mean, he’s a big guy — huge by Colts’ standards. And his specialty in college was, of all things, blitzing. He wasn’t considered much of a hard worker, and had never distinguished himself in coverage. It seemed to many that Wheeler was a player with the potential to be good, but that he was with the wrong team.

And his NFL career didn’t start on the strongest of notes. Injured in the summer, he played in just one preseason game. One of the big problems with Wheeler in college was that he had never really settled into one position, after coming into Georgia Tech as a defensive end before alternating between Sam and Mike. To make matters worse, he started his only preseason game at Mike, then the Colts shifted him to backup Sam when the regular season started.

When he did play in the regular season, he was only okay. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself on defense, but when Brackett went down late in the season, Wheeler wasn’t on the short list of replacements. But he was actually pretty good on special teams, showing skills as both a tackler and a blocker. The highlight of his season was when he recovered an onside kick attempt against the Jaguars. But even on specials, he showed an unnerving lack of discipline. And he was clearly outplayed by Senn.

Of course, after just one season, it’s too early to determine how good Wheeler is, or will be. He obviously needs more seasoning to contribute inside or out. The most likely scenario would be for him to spend 2009 and perhaps 2010 as a Hagleresque swing backup. And if he hasn’t earned a starting spot by then (preferably in the middle, where I think he’s better suited), he’ll probably be looking for a job in another city.

Note: I am predisposed to like Wheeler as he is a fan of both Jerry Lewis and the Andy Griffith Show.

59 Rufus Alexander
Numbers: 6007/228/4.79c4.69pd in 07
2008 stats: 2GP/0 GS with Minnesota Vikings
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/1 GS, 12 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL with Minnesota Vikings
Status: Signed through 2009

Two years ago at about this time, there was a lot of excitement about Alexander in Coltland. It made sense, he was an active, undersized outside linebacker who was very productive (118 tackles, 13 TFL and 3 sacks as a senior) at a big-time program (Oklahoma). But then the Combine came around, and Alexander ran like a guard, not just in the forty, but in the other drills as well. He also didn’t impress too many people with his skinny-legged build and a reputation for taking plays off.

The Colts didn’t draft him, but the Vikings did in the sixth round. A torn ACL wiped out his rookie season, but they gave him some opportunities in the 2008 preseason. Although he was mostly playing against scrubs, he looked pretty good against the run and okay against the pass. He was one of their final cuts and was re-signed to the practice squad. When injuries hit, they re-signed him to the active roster and he ran around some on special teams. They cut him again, and put him back on the practice squad. When injuries hit the Colts’ LB squad, they signed Alexander. He was inactive for three games before they cut him and stashed him on the practice squad. Just before he was due to become an unrestricted free agent, the Colts signed him to a 2009 contract.

Clearly, they saw something that warranted an invitation to camp. Alexander is smart and a solid citizen, and you can’t deny his production at Oklahoma. But he’ll be 26 when next camp opens, and is probably too slight to play Sam or Mike. So he’ll be fighting Senn and perhaps a few rookies for a roster spot designated for a special teamer who can compete for time at Will. Perhaps the team feels that another year removed from his ACL injury will bring him back into the form he showed as a Sooner. At any rate, his progress bears watching.

How this affects the draft and free agency

With Ron Meeks out of the picture, it’s harder to predict what the Colts will do defensively in the draft. Depending on who it is and how much power he has, things could change dramatically. They could blitz more (an idea I’d have to be sold on), they could put in more man-coverage schemes (a bad idea) or they could go 3-4 (a truly horrific idea).

But if things go according to the plan that was already in place, here’s what is likely to happen. They’ll start Keiaho at Will and Session at Sam for 2009. Keiaho, as is Colts tradition, will leave as a free agent after the season. He will then be replaced by Senn, a 2009 draft pick or Wheeler will step in at Sam and Session will take over at Will. They’ll draft more linebackers in the third through sixth rounds and they get groomed to take over as Session, Senn, Wheeler and others move on. It’s the Colts’ way. It’s the circle of life.

So, if things go the way they have since the Tony Dungy regime took over, look for the Colts to draft a fast, active, perhaps underweight outside linebacker (or two) on the second day of the draft. I’m looking at a couple of guys, in particular Ashlee Palmer out of Ole Miss, Oregon State’s Victor Butler and DeAndre Levy out of Wisconsin.

And while the Colts almost never sign other teams’ free agents, they have added the odd low-buck linebacker like Rocky Boiman in the past. I don’t see it happening this year, unless injuries or draft holdouts make it necessary.

Note: I think Wheeler should stay inside — he played much better inside than out at Georgia Tech — but that’s just me.

Linebackers selected by the Colts since Polian took over

2008 Third round Philip Wheeler
2007 Fourth round Clint Session
2006 Third round Freddie Keiaho
2005 Fifth round Tyjuan Hagler
2004 Third round Gilbert Gardner
2004 Fourth round Kendyll Pope
2003 Fifth round Keyon Whiteside
2003 Sixth round Cato June
2002 Fourth round David Thornton
2000 First round Rob Morris
2000 Second round Marcus Washington
1999 Second round Mike Peterson
1998 Fifth round Antony Jordan

Note: Tony Dungy brought the Cover-2 defense to Indy in 2002, and the Colts have not drafted a linebacker in the first or second round since.

The Usual Suspects

Here’s ColtPlay’s annual report on Colts penalties. Players are listed by their normal position on plays from scrimmage, not where they were penalized. For example, Darrell Reid is listed with defensive linemen, despite the fact that of his three penalties, one was on offense and the other two were on special teams.

Quarterbacks
3-15 Peyton Manning
• All three were delay of game calls, and knowing Manning, they were probably all intentional

Running backs
1-5 Dominic Rhodes

Wide receivers
2-15 Marvin Harrison
1-15 Pierre Garcon
1-10 Reggie Wayne
1-5 Anthony Gonzalez

Tight ends
2-15 Gijon Robinson
2-5 Dallas Clark
1-10 Jacob Tamme
• Tamme’s illegal block wiped out a 45-yard kick return by Courtney Roby

Offensive linemen
7-40 Ryan Diem (above)
6-40 Tony Ugoh
4-35 Mike Pollak
2-10 Jamey Richard
2-10 Charlie Johnson
1-5 Steve Justice
• One of Diem’s holds wiped out a 63-yard touchdown reception by Reggie Wayne
• One of Ugoh’s infractions negated a 22-yard catch by Wayne on 3rd-and-2, and he had three penalties on one drive against Houston, which ended in a field goal

Defensive linemen
4-15 Eric Foster
3-20 Raheem Brock
3-15 Darrell Reid
3-15 Robert Mathis
2-15 Keyunta Dawson
1-5 LaJuan Ramsey
1-5 Dwight Freeney
1-5 Antonio Johnson
1-0 Josh Thomas
• One of Brock’s calls wiped out a sack on 3rd-and-1

Linebackers
2-16 Freddy Keiaho
2-10 Philip Wheeler
1-10 Jordan Senn
1-5 Gary Brackett
1-5 Buster Davis
• One of Keiaho’s penalties gave the Jaguars a 1st-and-10 instead of an incomplete on a 4th-and-1

Defensive backs
5-55 Tim Jennings
5-42 Marlin Jackson
4-40 Nick Graham
3-15 Jamie Silva
2-25 Dante Hughes
2-10 Antoine Bethea
2-7 Kelvin Hayden
1-15 Melvin Bullitt
1-10 Matt Giordano
1-5 Keiwan Ratliff
• Jackson had as many penalties as Jennings in less than half as many games
• Graham had as many penalties as tackles
• One of Hayden’s miscues gave the Lions a 2nd-and-goal on the Colts’ 2-yard line
• Giordano’s illegal block wiped out a 52-yard kick return by Garcon

Other
1-5 Team

Depth chart minus UFAs and RFAs

The Colts announced the signings of LB Rufus Alexander, S Brannon Condren, CB Brandon Foster, WR Samuel Giguere, T Corey Hilliard (above), TE Jamie Petrowski, WR Taj Smith and CB Brandon Sumrall. I'll fill you in about all of them later, but for now, let's put together a depth chart of signed players and ERFAs (who might as well be signed).

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi

RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
• Hart and Dawson finished the season on injured reserve

FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
• Harrison could be a salary cap casualty

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
• Santi finished the season on injured reserve

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
• Lilja missed 2008 season on PUP list

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis

RLB 54 Freddy Keiaho, 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler

RCB 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
• Coe, Rushing missed 2008 season on injured reserve, Jackson finished the season on injured reserve

K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 17 Hunter Smith
LS 48 Justin Snow

Know Your Colts: Cornerbacks

This is the second in ColtPlay’s series of offseason positional breakdowns. This one concerns the cornerbacks.


Kelvin Hayden
Numbers: 5103/197/4.48c in 05
2008 stats: 10 GP/10 GS (8-2 LCB), 36 TK, 6 AT, 1 FF, 12 PBU, 3-135-1 INT, 2-7 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 6 TK, 1-67-1 INT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Unrestricted free agent

I remember back in 2005 when I wrote for some website about how much I wanted the Colts to draft Hayden. I saw him as a good athlete with a high ceiling who still had lots to learn about the cornerback position, but had shown some great flashes.

A day hadn’t passed when some guy wrote a long and impassioned e-mail to me about what a big mistake that would be. It made sense, so I, credulously, took Hayden off my list. That was the last time I listened to “some guy.”

To be honest, Hayden (who started college as a wide receiver, but couldn’t catch) took a while to develop, but once he did, he became a superior Cover-2 corner. He’s not a star — corners don’t have to be in this defense — but he is very effective.

He’s an unrestricted free agent, but he’s a Polian favorite and Polian has a habit of handing blank checks to cornerbacks’ agents. If the Colts are slow with their offer, or Hayden is determined to test the free-agency waters, things could get ugly. But the past has indicated that Polian very rarely loses any free agents he intends to keep.


Marlin Jackson
Numbers: 6005/198/4.52c4.48pd in 05
2008 stats: 7 GP/7 GS (3-4 RCB) 41 TK, 6 AT, 1.5 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 5-42 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise, ended season on injured reserve

It’s hard not to compare Jackson to Hayden. They were drafted together and became starters together.

So, okay, let’s compare them. Hayden is a little better in coverage, both man and zone. Hayden leaves less of a cushion, and allows fewer short completions. Hayden has better hands (which is a terrible, terrible indictment of Jackson because Hayden’s hands are like stone) and is more of a threat with the ball in his hands. Jackson is a better tackler, especially in the open field. When Jackson hits you, you know you’ve been hit and you may not remember to hold onto the ball. Jackson is also a better blitzer and is better at shedding blocks, but he also racks up more penalties.

But in truth, the differences — all of them — are slight. Think of Jackson as the tougher, big brother and Hayden as the slightly more athletic little brother. The difference? Hayden has a contract due and Jackson doesn’t until next season.


Tim Jennings
Numbers: 5077/185/4.32c4.28pd in 06
2008 stats: 15 GP/12 GS (7-0 RCB, 3-2 LCB), 49 TK, 14 AT, 1 QBH, 2.5-2.5 TFL, 2 FF, 2 FR, 7 PBU, 2-9-0 INT, 2 STT, 2 STA, 5-55 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5GP/3 GS, 16 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 1 STT, 1-15 PEN
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise

If you read what the Colts fans have to say about Jennings, you’d think he was sent to Indy by the devil. Oh, I only wish they would watch the game more closely. I’m gonna say this and I don’t care what anyone thinks — Jennings is, by a distinct margin, the best coverage man in the Colts’ secondary. Seriously, watch this kid. He swims around receivers like a piranha. No matter where you are, there he is — in your face. And if you watch the tape, you will see that this guy is fearless against the run, taking on backs far bigger than himself and blitzing like a teeny, tiny linebacker.

But there are significant drawbacks: a) Jennings is so short, he can walk under most tables without bending; as good as he is in coverage, those tall guys are always gonna eat him for breakfast, b) Jennings is willing to sacrifice his body to make a tackle, but just doesn’t have the frame or the technique to be very good at it, and c) Jennings is something of a nut, grabbing facemasks and jerseys and hitting guys whenever and wherever he feels like it, no matter what the rules say. And sometimes he just plain blows coverages. He gets especially sloppy when he feels overmatched.

So what do we do with a problem like Timmy? It’s important to make sure he plays where he belongs. Note that in 2008, the Colts were 3-2 when Jennings played LCB (ie. covering the opposing team’s top receiver), but 7-0 when Jennings started at RCB (ie. covering the opponent’s No. 2 receiver). Ideally, Jennings would be the third corner, covering all those slippery little guys who would give Hayden and Jackson headaches, slipping outside when a team has a Wes Welker or a Ted Ginn in the starting lineup.

But injuries to the starters prevented that in 2008. So Jennings played — basically out of position — outside. He was beaten sometimes, but not more often than the starters would have been, and his aggressive nature turned to frustration and he was responsible for more penalties than I think he’d like to remember.

It appears likely that Hayden will be re-signed, and that Jackson will recover from his injuries before next season. In that scenario, Jennings would return to his familiar and effective spot as the third guy, the guy who covers the slot man, and all will be well again at the top of the Colts cornerback corps.


Keiwan Ratliff
Numbers: 5107/188/4.62c in 04
2008 stats: 10 GP/4 GS (2-0 RCB, 1-0 LCB, 1-0 NB) 22 TK, 4 AT, 1 FR, 5 PBU, 2-37-1 INT, 5 STT, 1 STA, 16-89-0 (12 FC) PR
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 11 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-4-0 INT, STT, 3-12-0 (3 FC) PR
Status: Unrestricted free agent

When the Bengals selected Ratliff in the second round of the 2004 draft, I remember thinking that he was a great college player who didn’t have the speed to cut it in the NFL. I watched him for years at Florida. He did everything right, but just wasn’t fast enough and didn’t have the size to offset it. When Cincinnati cut him later on, I felt like he was done.

But then he shows up in Coltland, brushes aside some vaunted recent draft picks, installs himself as No. 4 corner (which meant four starts in an injury-riddled secondary) and even returns punts.

I still say he’s slow. But now I see what the Bengals saw. Ratliff is an intelligent, disciplined defensive back who uses his instincts and positioning to come up with some unlikely plays. He’s quick in confined spaces and never backs down, often wrestling for the ball or dragging a man down. He’s one of those guys that GMs want to replace, but coaches want to hang onto — kind of like a 21st-century Eugene Daniel, but to a lesser extent.

As far as Ratliff’s contributions as a return man, I’m not as impressed. He has vision and can cut, but his lack of footspeed prevents him from making much of an impact there. I think he was back there simply because he was the only available guy the Colts had who the coaching staff thought would catch the ball every time. Not surprisingly, he had almost as many fair catches as returns.

If we continue with the Hayden signed/Jackson healed scenario, I think Ratliff has a good chance at a roster spot on the team if he re-signs. He has clearly outplayed the younger options at the position, is durable and has the mentality to play on specials. The Colts would be smart to offer him a short-term contract (perhaps one with a number of incentives geared towards starts, interceptions and/or return yardage). His market value is likely to be limited because he’s been cut a few times and many teams are wary of signing Colts as the memories of guys like Rick DeMulling and Jason David tend to cause other NFL GMs nightmares.

Dante Hughes
Numbers: 5101/190/4.65c4.56pd in 07
2008 stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-16-0 INT, 12 STT, 2 STA, 2-25 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 STT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts drafted Hughes (then called Daymeion) in the third round of the 2007 draft, they thought they were getting a player a lot like Ratliff — a guy who does everything right, but just lack a little in the deep speed department. But since logic dictates that corners don’t really need all that much deep speed in the Colts defense, Hughes should be fine. Right?

So far, wrong. Injuries and ineffective play have kept Hughes off the field. When he has played, he hasn’t done much and has sometimes looked totally lost in coverage. While many fans expected him to dislodge Jennings from the No. 3 spot, Hughes never came close and actually lost the No. 4 spot to Ratliff midway through the 2008 preseason.

Still, it’s too early to give up on Hughes. Cornerback is one of the tougher positions to adjust to in the pros, so the jury’s still out on this kid. He was a big-time producer at Cal, so there’s a good chance the light could turn on sometime soon. But if it doesn’t this year, I think it’s over.

Michael Coe
Numbers: 6005/190/4.53c4.49pd in 07
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Signed through 2010, spent season on injured reserve

This guy’s still around? He played six games as a rookie in 2007 and blocked a punt against the Ravens. Since then, he hasn’t really gotten out of the whirlpool.

If he comes back, he’ll have to work for a spot. The scouting report on him thus far is that he’s a smart kid (a coach’s son who got a degree despite transferring from Arkansas to Alabama State) who lacks deep speed and, far worse, closing speed. He’ll work hard and play aggressively, but really hasn’t shown he can withstand the punishment an NFL player must.

I actually do remember him from 2007. He impressed me far more as a special-teamer than he did as a defender. He’ll need to get tighter in coverage to earn a spot as a cornerback.

T.J. Rushing
Numbers: 5090/186/4.45pd in 06
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 2 STT, 2-26 (1 FC) PR, 3-104-0 KR
Status: Signed through 2009, spent season on injured reserve

Let’s get one thing straight, Rushing isn’t really an NFL cornerback. I mean he’s played cornerback when injuries have forced him to (and in the preseason) and the more I’ve seen him play on defense, the more I don’t want him to. If he’s playing back there, the Colts are desperate.

What he actually is is a return man. At that position, he excels, despite the Colts’ lack of blocking for him. He’s got straight-line speed, more than a little niftiness and generally sure hands. It’s hard to judge exactly how good he is because of how bad the Colts special teams have been, but he should enter camp as the No. 1 option on both punts and kicks.

He’s also a pretty fair special-teams tackler, so if he’s healthy, he should be tough to dislodge from the roster.

Nick Graham
Numbers: 5101/190/4.55pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 STT, 1 STA, 4-40 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 1 AT with Philadelphia
Status: Signed (I think) through 2009, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts signed Graham last season, I recalled him from Tulsa. Played faster than he timed, a bit of a hitter, but was no great shakes in coverage. I considered him not really worth drafting. As an undrafted rookie with the Eagles in 2007, he was a solid special-teams contributor, but did little on defense. Part of that may be because the Eagles play almost exclusively man coverage, while Graham is better in zone (which the Colts play almost exclusively).

Keep an eye on Graham. The Colts need special teamers, and Graham has proven he can do that and has shown some potential as a defender. The Colts put Graham on injured reserve last season rather than come to a waiver agreement with him, so they expect him back for camp. Still, it’s hard to see how a guy who had as many penalties as he did tackles in his first season in Indy would have much of a future.

Brandon Foster
Numbers: 5075/185/4.28pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 1-18 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010

Somehow, Foster is actually smaller than Jennings. And even more unbelievably, he’s even faster. But he’s not as strong, not quite the hitter and nowhere near as aggressive. The flipside of that is that he’s smarter, more disciplined and far less prone to mistakes. He played a bit in the preseason as a rook, and didn’t get totally abused. He showed good instincts, but not much tackling ability.

He did make one great play, downing a punt at Atlanta 4-yard line, showing off his crazy speed. So he could be a special teams guy. There’s little doubt he’ll be the first guy down there if he’s not blocked out of existence, but what can he do once he gets there?

The one thing that gets me about Foster is that he has never been used as a return man. Last season, after Rushing went down, the Colts paraded all kinds of guys back there including scrapheap pickup Justin Forsett and slow-as-dirt Ratliff, but didn’t give lightning-fast Foster a shot. Neither did the Longhorns when he played in Austin (unless you count the one onside kick he recovered). But as a senior at Texas, he had four picks for 115 yards and two scores to go along with two fumble recoveries for 25 yards and another touchdown. Obviously, the kid can run — why not give him a shot?

How this affects the draft and free agency

There is talent and depth at the position, but of the Colts’ top four cornerbacks, two are due to be unrestricted free agents this year, and the other two will be after the 2009 season. Behind them are question marks and unknowns.

But keep in mind that Polian has shown a history of paying, even overpaying cornerbacks. It’s likely that the Colts will retain most if not all of them. Part of the reason that they will be so aggressive in keeping them is the fact that they don’t have many other options. Hughes played himself out of the defensive rotation, and Coe just can’t stay healthy enough to show that he deserves a roster spot. Rushing’s a cornerback in name only, while Graham hasn’t proven anything and Foster’s probably too small to be a contributor on defense.

No matter how many of the top four (if any) leave, don’t expect to see the Colts sign a name free agent. While Polian has signed free agent cornerbacks to big contracts in the past, it should be noted that both of them happened when he was new to the Colts and both of the players — Jeff Burris and Tyrone Poole — were guys he had drafted in the first round when he was in charge of other teams. That window has since closed.

Far more likely, they will get potential contributors through the draft. But that’s kind of risky. Not only haven’t Hughes or Coe worked out as planned, neither have most of the guys Polian has brought to Indy.

There is a chance the Colts will draft a cornerback on the first day. If you look at the players who are current successful in Indy, you’ll notice that Jackson was a first-round pick, while Hayden, Jennings and Ratliff were second rounders (although Ratliff was chosen by Cincinnati). All of the guys who haven’t worked out have been drafted in the third round or later.

While it may make sense for the Colts to grab a cornerback early, I don’t think they will. Here’s why:

1) This draft will be dedicated primarily to the offense
2) I expect at least three of the top four cornerbacks will be back at least for one season
3) If top cornerbacks are so important, why did the Colts go 3-4 with Jackson in the lineup and 9-0 without him?
4) Polian is loathe to change his philosophy, and is likely to keep drafting lots of cornerbacks, hoping to strike it rich with some late-rounder

As far as who they’ll draft, your guess is as good as mine. Will it be a big guy like Jackson or a shrimp like Jennings? A speedster or a slug? A ballhawk or a tackler with hands of stone? A clean Marine or a character problem? A Big-10 star or a D2 phenom? Could be any of them, because if you look at the list of Polian draftees below, you’ll see it has been all of them.

I know some people have been talking up Jackson State’s Domonique Johnson, but I’m wary. He has prototypical NFL cornerback skills, and some believe his small-college background and character issues will drive his draft stock down. But I’m pretty sure that NFL teams will forget both of those things when they see him work out and he’ll go on the first day. Some guys I like include San Jose State’s Coye Francies (who can also return kicks), Troy’s Sherrod Martin and my current favorite, Maryland’s Kevin Barnes.

Cornerbacks drafted by the Colts since Polian took over

2007 Third round Daymeion (now Dante) Hughes
2007 Fifth round Michael Coe
2006 Second round Tim Jennings
2006 Seventh round T.J. Rushing
2005 First round Marlin Jackson
2005 Second round Kelvin Hayden
2004 Fourth round Jason David
2004 Sixth round Von Hutchins
2003 Third round Donald Strickland
2002 Third round Joseph Jefferson
2001 Fifth round Raymond Walls
2000 Third round David Macklin
2000 Seventh round Rodregis Brooks
1999 Fourth round Paul Miranda