Saturday, January 17, 2009

Depth chart minus UFAs and RFAs


The Colts announced the signings of LB Rufus Alexander, S Brannon Condren, CB Brandon Foster, WR Samuel Giguere, T Corey Hilliard (above), TE Jamie Petrowski, WR Taj Smith and CB Brandon Sumrall. I'll fill you in about all of them later, but for now, let's put together a depth chart of signed players and ERFAs (who might as well be signed).

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi

RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
• Hart and Dawson finished the season on injured reserve

FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
• Harrison could be a salary cap casualty

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
• Santi finished the season on injured reserve

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
• Lilja missed 2008 season on PUP list

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis

RLB 54 Freddy Keiaho, 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler

RCB 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
• Coe, Rushing missed 2008 season on injured reserve, Jackson finished the season on injured reserve

K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 17 Hunter Smith
LS 48 Justin Snow

Friday, January 16, 2009

Know Your Colts: Cornerbacks

This is the second in ColtPlay’s series of offseason positional breakdowns. This one concerns the cornerbacks.


Kelvin Hayden
Numbers: 5103/197/4.48c in 05
2008 stats: 10 GP/10 GS (8-2 LCB), 36 TK, 6 AT, 1 FF, 12 PBU, 3-135-1 INT, 2-7 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 6 TK, 1-67-1 INT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Unrestricted free agent

I remember back in 2005 when I wrote for some website about how much I wanted the Colts to draft Hayden. I saw him as a good athlete with a high ceiling who still had lots to learn about the cornerback position, but had shown some great flashes.

A day hadn’t passed when some guy wrote a long and impassioned e-mail to me about what a big mistake that would be. It made sense, so I, credulously, took Hayden off my list. That was the last time I listened to “some guy.”

To be honest, Hayden (who started college as a wide receiver, but couldn’t catch) took a while to develop, but once he did, he became a superior Cover-2 corner. He’s not a star — corners don’t have to be in this defense — but he is very effective.

He’s an unrestricted free agent, but he’s a Polian favorite and Polian has a habit of handing blank checks to cornerbacks’ agents. If the Colts are slow with their offer, or Hayden is determined to test the free-agency waters, things could get ugly. But the past has indicated that Polian very rarely loses any free agents he intends to keep.


Marlin Jackson
Numbers: 6005/198/4.52c4.48pd in 05
2008 stats: 7 GP/7 GS (3-4 RCB) 41 TK, 6 AT, 1.5 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 5-42 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise, ended season on injured reserve

It’s hard not to compare Jackson to Hayden. They were drafted together and became starters together.

So, okay, let’s compare them. Hayden is a little better in coverage, both man and zone. Hayden leaves less of a cushion, and allows fewer short completions. Hayden has better hands (which is a terrible, terrible indictment of Jackson because Hayden’s hands are like stone) and is more of a threat with the ball in his hands. Jackson is a better tackler, especially in the open field. When Jackson hits you, you know you’ve been hit and you may not remember to hold onto the ball. Jackson is also a better blitzer and is better at shedding blocks, but he also racks up more penalties.

But in truth, the differences — all of them — are slight. Think of Jackson as the tougher, big brother and Hayden as the slightly more athletic little brother. The difference? Hayden has a contract due and Jackson doesn’t until next season.


Tim Jennings
Numbers: 5077/185/4.32c4.28pd in 06
2008 stats: 15 GP/12 GS (7-0 RCB, 3-2 LCB), 49 TK, 14 AT, 1 QBH, 2.5-2.5 TFL, 2 FF, 2 FR, 7 PBU, 2-9-0 INT, 2 STT, 2 STA, 5-55 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5GP/3 GS, 16 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 1 STT, 1-15 PEN
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise

If you read what the Colts fans have to say about Jennings, you’d think he was sent to Indy by the devil. Oh, I only wish they would watch the game more closely. I’m gonna say this and I don’t care what anyone thinks — Jennings is, by a distinct margin, the best coverage man in the Colts’ secondary. Seriously, watch this kid. He swims around receivers like a piranha. No matter where you are, there he is — in your face. And if you watch the tape, you will see that this guy is fearless against the run, taking on backs far bigger than himself and blitzing like a teeny, tiny linebacker.

But there are significant drawbacks: a) Jennings is so short, he can walk under most tables without bending; as good as he is in coverage, those tall guys are always gonna eat him for breakfast, b) Jennings is willing to sacrifice his body to make a tackle, but just doesn’t have the frame or the technique to be very good at it, and c) Jennings is something of a nut, grabbing facemasks and jerseys and hitting guys whenever and wherever he feels like it, no matter what the rules say. And sometimes he just plain blows coverages. He gets especially sloppy when he feels overmatched.

So what do we do with a problem like Timmy? It’s important to make sure he plays where he belongs. Note that in 2008, the Colts were 3-2 when Jennings played LCB (ie. covering the opposing team’s top receiver), but 7-0 when Jennings started at RCB (ie. covering the opponent’s No. 2 receiver). Ideally, Jennings would be the third corner, covering all those slippery little guys who would give Hayden and Jackson headaches, slipping outside when a team has a Wes Welker or a Ted Ginn in the starting lineup.

But injuries to the starters prevented that in 2008. So Jennings played — basically out of position — outside. He was beaten sometimes, but not more often than the starters would have been, and his aggressive nature turned to frustration and he was responsible for more penalties than I think he’d like to remember.

It appears likely that Hayden will be re-signed, and that Jackson will recover from his injuries before next season. In that scenario, Jennings would return to his familiar and effective spot as the third guy, the guy who covers the slot man, and all will be well again at the top of the Colts cornerback corps.


Keiwan Ratliff
Numbers: 5107/188/4.62c in 04
2008 stats: 10 GP/4 GS (2-0 RCB, 1-0 LCB, 1-0 NB) 22 TK, 4 AT, 1 FR, 5 PBU, 2-37-1 INT, 5 STT, 1 STA, 16-89-0 (12 FC) PR
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 11 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-4-0 INT, STT, 3-12-0 (3 FC) PR
Status: Unrestricted free agent

When the Bengals selected Ratliff in the second round of the 2004 draft, I remember thinking that he was a great college player who didn’t have the speed to cut it in the NFL. I watched him for years at Florida. He did everything right, but just wasn’t fast enough and didn’t have the size to offset it. When Cincinnati cut him later on, I felt like he was done.

But then he shows up in Coltland, brushes aside some vaunted recent draft picks, installs himself as No. 4 corner (which meant four starts in an injury-riddled secondary) and even returns punts.

I still say he’s slow. But now I see what the Bengals saw. Ratliff is an intelligent, disciplined defensive back who uses his instincts and positioning to come up with some unlikely plays. He’s quick in confined spaces and never backs down, often wrestling for the ball or dragging a man down. He’s one of those guys that GMs want to replace, but coaches want to hang onto — kind of like a 21st-century Eugene Daniel, but to a lesser extent.

As far as Ratliff’s contributions as a return man, I’m not as impressed. He has vision and can cut, but his lack of footspeed prevents him from making much of an impact there. I think he was back there simply because he was the only available guy the Colts had who the coaching staff thought would catch the ball every time. Not surprisingly, he had almost as many fair catches as returns.

If we continue with the Hayden signed/Jackson healed scenario, I think Ratliff has a good chance at a roster spot on the team if he re-signs. He has clearly outplayed the younger options at the position, is durable and has the mentality to play on specials. The Colts would be smart to offer him a short-term contract (perhaps one with a number of incentives geared towards starts, interceptions and/or return yardage). His market value is likely to be limited because he’s been cut a few times and many teams are wary of signing Colts as the memories of guys like Rick DeMulling and Jason David tend to cause other NFL GMs nightmares.

Dante Hughes
Numbers: 5101/190/4.65c4.56pd in 07
2008 stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-16-0 INT, 12 STT, 2 STA, 2-25 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 STT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts drafted Hughes (then called Daymeion) in the third round of the 2007 draft, they thought they were getting a player a lot like Ratliff — a guy who does everything right, but just lack a little in the deep speed department. But since logic dictates that corners don’t really need all that much deep speed in the Colts defense, Hughes should be fine. Right?

So far, wrong. Injuries and ineffective play have kept Hughes off the field. When he has played, he hasn’t done much and has sometimes looked totally lost in coverage. While many fans expected him to dislodge Jennings from the No. 3 spot, Hughes never came close and actually lost the No. 4 spot to Ratliff midway through the 2008 preseason.

Still, it’s too early to give up on Hughes. Cornerback is one of the tougher positions to adjust to in the pros, so the jury’s still out on this kid. He was a big-time producer at Cal, so there’s a good chance the light could turn on sometime soon. But if it doesn’t this year, I think it’s over.

Michael Coe
Numbers: 6005/190/4.53c4.49pd in 07
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Signed through 2010, spent season on injured reserve

This guy’s still around? He played six games as a rookie in 2007 and blocked a punt against the Ravens. Since then, he hasn’t really gotten out of the whirlpool.

If he comes back, he’ll have to work for a spot. The scouting report on him thus far is that he’s a smart kid (a coach’s son who got a degree despite transferring from Arkansas to Alabama State) who lacks deep speed and, far worse, closing speed. He’ll work hard and play aggressively, but really hasn’t shown he can withstand the punishment an NFL player must.

I actually do remember him from 2007. He impressed me far more as a special-teamer than he did as a defender. He’ll need to get tighter in coverage to earn a spot as a cornerback.

T.J. Rushing
Numbers: 5090/186/4.45pd in 06
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 2 STT, 2-26 (1 FC) PR, 3-104-0 KR
Status: Signed through 2009, spent season on injured reserve

Let’s get one thing straight, Rushing isn’t really an NFL cornerback. I mean he’s played cornerback when injuries have forced him to (and in the preseason) and the more I’ve seen him play on defense, the more I don’t want him to. If he’s playing back there, the Colts are desperate.

What he actually is is a return man. At that position, he excels, despite the Colts’ lack of blocking for him. He’s got straight-line speed, more than a little niftiness and generally sure hands. It’s hard to judge exactly how good he is because of how bad the Colts special teams have been, but he should enter camp as the No. 1 option on both punts and kicks.

He’s also a pretty fair special-teams tackler, so if he’s healthy, he should be tough to dislodge from the roster.

Nick Graham
Numbers: 5101/190/4.55pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 STT, 1 STA, 4-40 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 1 AT with Philadelphia
Status: Signed (I think) through 2009, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts signed Graham last season, I recalled him from Tulsa. Played faster than he timed, a bit of a hitter, but was no great shakes in coverage. I considered him not really worth drafting. As an undrafted rookie with the Eagles in 2007, he was a solid special-teams contributor, but did little on defense. Part of that may be because the Eagles play almost exclusively man coverage, while Graham is better in zone (which the Colts play almost exclusively).

Keep an eye on Graham. The Colts need special teamers, and Graham has proven he can do that and has shown some potential as a defender. The Colts put Graham on injured reserve last season rather than come to a waiver agreement with him, so they expect him back for camp. Still, it’s hard to see how a guy who had as many penalties as he did tackles in his first season in Indy would have much of a future.

Brandon Foster
Numbers: 5075/185/4.28pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 1-18 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010

Somehow, Foster is actually smaller than Jennings. And even more unbelievably, he’s even faster. But he’s not as strong, not quite the hitter and nowhere near as aggressive. The flipside of that is that he’s smarter, more disciplined and far less prone to mistakes. He played a bit in the preseason as a rook, and didn’t get totally abused. He showed good instincts, but not much tackling ability.

He did make one great play, downing a punt at Atlanta 4-yard line, showing off his crazy speed. So he could be a special teams guy. There’s little doubt he’ll be the first guy down there if he’s not blocked out of existence, but what can he do once he gets there?

The one thing that gets me about Foster is that he has never been used as a return man. Last season, after Rushing went down, the Colts paraded all kinds of guys back there including scrapheap pickup Justin Forsett and slow-as-dirt Ratliff, but didn’t give lightning-fast Foster a shot. Neither did the Longhorns when he played in Austin (unless you count the one onside kick he recovered). But as a senior at Texas, he had four picks for 115 yards and two scores to go along with two fumble recoveries for 25 yards and another touchdown. Obviously, the kid can run — why not give him a shot?

How this affects the draft and free agency

There is talent and depth at the position, but of the Colts’ top four cornerbacks, two are due to be unrestricted free agents this year, and the other two will be after the 2009 season. Behind them are question marks and unknowns.

But keep in mind that Polian has shown a history of paying, even overpaying cornerbacks. It’s likely that the Colts will retain most if not all of them. Part of the reason that they will be so aggressive in keeping them is the fact that they don’t have many other options. Hughes played himself out of the defensive rotation, and Coe just can’t stay healthy enough to show that he deserves a roster spot. Rushing’s a cornerback in name only, while Graham hasn’t proven anything and Foster’s probably too small to be a contributor on defense.

No matter how many of the top four (if any) leave, don’t expect to see the Colts sign a name free agent. While Polian has signed free agent cornerbacks to big contracts in the past, it should be noted that both of them happened when he was new to the Colts and both of the players — Jeff Burris and Tyrone Poole — were guys he had drafted in the first round when he was in charge of other teams. That window has since closed.

Far more likely, they will get potential contributors through the draft. But that’s kind of risky. Not only haven’t Hughes or Coe worked out as planned, neither have most of the guys Polian has brought to Indy.

There is a chance the Colts will draft a cornerback on the first day. If you look at the players who are current successful in Indy, you’ll notice that Jackson was a first-round pick, while Hayden, Jennings and Ratliff were second rounders (although Ratliff was chosen by Cincinnati). All of the guys who haven’t worked out have been drafted in the third round or later.

While it may make sense for the Colts to grab a cornerback early, I don’t think they will. Here’s why:

1) This draft will be dedicated primarily to the offense
2) I expect at least three of the top four cornerbacks will be back at least for one season
3) If top cornerbacks are so important, why did the Colts go 3-4 with Jackson in the lineup and 9-0 without him?
4) Polian is loathe to change his philosophy, and is likely to keep drafting lots of cornerbacks, hoping to strike it rich with some late-rounder

As far as who they’ll draft, your guess is as good as mine. Will it be a big guy like Jackson or a shrimp like Jennings? A speedster or a slug? A ballhawk or a tackler with hands of stone? A clean Marine or a character problem? A Big-10 star or a D2 phenom? Could be any of them, because if you look at the list of Polian draftees below, you’ll see it has been all of them.

I know some people have been talking up Jackson State’s Domonique Johnson, but I’m wary. He has prototypical NFL cornerback skills, and some believe his small-college background and character issues will drive his draft stock down. But I’m pretty sure that NFL teams will forget both of those things when they see him work out and he’ll go on the first day. Some guys I like include San Jose State’s Coye Francies (who can also return kicks), Troy’s Sherrod Martin and my current favorite, Maryland’s Kevin Barnes.

Cornerbacks drafted by the Colts since Polian took over

2007 Third round Daymeion (now Dante) Hughes
2007 Fifth round Michael Coe
2006 Second round Tim Jennings
2006 Seventh round T.J. Rushing
2005 First round Marlin Jackson
2005 Second round Kelvin Hayden
2004 Fourth round Jason David
2004 Sixth round Von Hutchins
2003 Third round Donald Strickland
2002 Third round Joseph Jefferson
2001 Fifth round Raymond Walls
2000 Third round David Macklin
2000 Seventh round Rodregis Brooks
1999 Fourth round Paul Miranda

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Addition by subtraction


So the Colts dropped special-teams coach Russ Purnell (left). I hate to see anyone lose a job, but he wasn’t really doing his. The Colts teams associated with him are always near the bottom in most special-teams categories despite have a lot of speed and youth on the roster. If you subtract the work of some highly paid specialists (like Adam Vinatieri, Hunter Smith, Justin Snow and, though I hate to admit it, Mike Vanderjagt), his teams have been woeful. Last season, the Colts were 32nd in punt return average, 28th in kick return average, 15th in punt coverage average and 24th in kick coverage average.

I’m not sure how difficult coaching returns and coverage is. I mean, what do you do after you tell your players “stay in your lanes, break on a full-step cut”? Maybe it’s all about intensity. Maybe it has to be “STAY IN YOUR LANES! BREAK ON THE FULL-STEP CUT!” I wonder what Steve Tasker is doing for a living these days.

• Perhaps the Colts will address the gunner position in the draft. Roy Hall could probably do it if he could remain healthy, but that doesn’t seem like something to rely on. I don’t really see any other viable candidates for the position on the roster, except perhaps Brannon Condren (an unrestricted free agent).

• You know what else the Colts were dead last in? Rushing average. Yep, a mere 3.44 yards a carry. And they were 31st in total rushing yardage. That astounds me, especially when you consider that they were 12-4 — winning teams run the ball more often to retain control, rest their defense and run out the clock. The Colts just didn’t have that option. But we’ll discuss that in another post.

• Is the Darrell Reid as fullback experiment over? I sure hope so. I thought the madness stopped when they got rid of Dan Klecko.

• Does Peyton Manning really have trouble with 3-4 defenses? I don’t know. Although I’m on board with those who say the offense lost the San Diego game, I wouldn’t pin it entirely on Manning. The lack of a running game was the real problem. Not only did it hinder the offense, but it left the defense chasing that little waterbug around for 37 minutes and 9 seconds. In overtime, they were tired, frustrated and sloppy.

But I digress. In the regular season, Manning was 5-0 (1.000) against 3-4 defenses in 2008 and 8-2 (0.800) over the last three years. Compare that with 4-3 defenses: 8-4 (0.667) in 2008 and 29-9 (0.763) over the past three years. If anything, he’s proven slightly better against 3-4s, despite the fact that the 3-4 teams he has played against most often (New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Baltimore) are considered to have elite defenses.

Note:
Tasker provides color commentary for Buffalo Bills games for CBS.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Know Your Colts: Safeties

This is the first in Coltplay’s series of positional breakdowns for the Colts as they prepare for the draft and free agency. This entry looks at the safeties.


Bob Sanders
Numbers: 5081/204/4.35c in 04
2008 Stats: 6 GP/6 GS (4-1 SS, 1-0 FS), 25 TK, 14 AT, 2 PBU, 1-0-0 INT
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Signed through 2012

Colts fans complain about Sanders too much. They also praise him too much. Both are signs that they don’t understand what is, in reality, a fairly simple construct. Let me walk you through it. Sanders is capable of playing safety as well as any man in the league. As well as any man in recent memory. He destroys the run like a linebacker. He covers like a corner. He has the hands for the pick, and the wheels to take it home. He has no problem putting a 330-pound tackle on his back and simply destroys men much larger than himself. He can sniff out a fake and has such extraordinary closing speed, that it wouldn’t matter all that much if he couldn’t. He’s not perfect, but he is undeniably good.

That said, he has played in just 45 of 80 regular-season games for the Colts since he was chosen in the second round of the 2004 draft. And in many of those games he was nicked up. It is incredibly frustrating for Colts fans to see this dynamo, this miracle, this former Defensive Player of the Year pacing the sidelines in street clothes more often than not. For some, that frustration has turned to anger, especially after Sanders signed a $37.5 million, five-year contract in 2007. They wonder, often aloud, who cares how good he is if he can’t stay healthy?

They say trade him. I say that’s impossible. Moving a contract that big would be so enormously complicated and damaging to both teams’ salary caps that I couldn’t image anyone undertaking it, even if Sanders didn’t have durability problems. And he has.

Of course he has. He’s 5’8 and weighs over 200 pounds. That would be okay if he had that thick, stout build of, say, a Maurice Jones-Drew, but he doesn’t. Instead, Sanders is an unlikely-looking combination of giant arms, a broad chest and heavily muscled thighs on an otherwise thin and spindly body. It’s an enormous amount of muscle on a skeleton that simply was not designed to carry it. He looks inflated. I don’t know how he got that way, but it’s not how humans are supposed to be built. That body may give him super powers, but it also makes him prone to breakdowns. Combine that with Sanders’ kamikaze style of play and it’s a wonder he ever plays at all.

So Colts fans should realize what they have in Sanders and learn to live with the situation. He is the best safety in the league. And he is also an injury-prone player whose presence can never be truly relied upon. But he’s not going anywhere and when he is right — maybe about half the Colts’ games every season — he’ll make a difference.


Antoine Bethea
Numbers: 5110/203/4.39c in 06
2008 Stats: 16 GP/16 GS (11-4 FS, 1-0 SS), 74 TK, 27 AT, 1 TFL, 1 FR, 4 PBU, 2-0-0 INT, 2-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a huge raise

It’s interesting that after Bethea joined the Colts after being chosen in the 6th round of the 2006 draft, he didn’t correct the vast majority of media and fans who pronounced his last name incorrectly. Instead, he just smiled and nodded and played his game. But times have changed. Bethea has proven to be a top NFL safety — a Pro bowl alternate last season — and now he’s not too shy to correct those who muff his last name.

He deserves some recognition, but it’s impossible not to compare him to Sanders because they share the same backfield. Bethea’s a touch slower, is a tick behind when it comes to recognizing plays, is not as slick in coverage and hits with a 2x4 rather than a wrecking ball. And he’s not nearly the wrap-up tackler his shorter, more freakishly muscled friend is.

When Sanders is healthy, Bethea plays second fiddle — deeper in coverage, more of a centerfielder type who fixes other people’s mistakes, especially in the running game. And when Sanders isn’t playing, he’s much closer to the line and more aggressive.

On most teams, Bethea — despite his lowly draft status — would be the top safety. On the Colts, he is only half the time.


Melvin Bullitt
Numbers: 6011/201/4.48pd in 07
2008 Stats: 15 GP/9 GS (6-2 SS, 1-0 NB), 53 TK, 12 AT, 1 QBP, 2.5 TFL, 1 FF, 9 PBU, 4-7-0 INT, 7 STT, 1 STA, 1-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 1 GP/0 GS, 1 TK, 1 AT
Status: Signed through 2009, likely to get a significant raise

I thought the Colts were nuts last year when they hemmed and hawed on a new contract for restricted free agent Matt Giordano. I mean, with Sanders only available half the time, why were they letting this good-enough-to-start veteran safety dangle?

It was because they knew something I didn’t. They had another option — Bullitt. And I think it was only Bullitt’s preseason injury that brought Giordano back into the fold.

I confess I didn’t know that much about Bullitt. I was aware of him from Texas A&M, but since most of the tape I saw was of him playing outside linebacker, I didn’t think he’d be ready to contribute much at safety. On the Colts, past history dictates, college safeties play linebacker, not the other way around.

And he didn’t do much in his rookie season after being signed as an undrafted free agent after coming out as a junior. I mean, he was okay on special teams but only occasionally showed up on defense. The only extended playing time he saw was in the boring final regular-season game against the Titans. He played extensively in the second half when both teams had their scrubs in and led the Colts with eight tackles. Part of that was him, part of that was him being targeted.

I was actually surprised he made the final cuts in 2008 when 4th-round draft pick Brannon Condren didn’t. Then I saw him play — often as a starter — and I understood what Bullitt was all about.

Colts fans love Bullitt. They remember him more for his game-saving interceptions than his drive-extending missing tackle attempts. In reality, Bullitt will never be the athlete Giordano is, nor will he be as agile in coverage. But he is more of a playmaker, he’s a more reliable tackler (though just barely) and works for a hell of a lot less money. Last year, Giordano made $971,000, while Bullitt made $366,667. Because of that, the No. 3 safety job — although given Sanders’ health history, it’s more like No. 2.5 — is his. With Giordano unsigned and Bullitt with one year left before restricted free agency, look for that to continue.


Matt Giordano
Numbers: 5114/198/4.54c4.48pd in 05
2008 Stats: 13 GP/1 GS (1-0 SS), 12 TK, 1 AT, 1 PBU, 7 STT, 6STA, 1-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 1 TK, 1 AT, 1 STT
Status: Unrestricted free agent

The writing was on the wall for Giordano early this season when Sanders went down and Bullitt went on the field instead of him. Giordano is in his walk year (he’s an unrestricted free agent), and the Colts are not about to devote much money to sign a guy they consider to be their fourth-best safety.

They will miss him, even though Bullitt has already taken his place on defense. Giordano is a better special-teamer, not just because of his hard-wired toughness, but because he’s one of the few Colts in recent memory who will actually throw a block on return teams when necessary.

The primary reason Giordano hasn’t been a starter thus far in his career has been his tackling. I can hear you now telling me how nuts I am because you have seen Giordano destroy guys. So have I. But I have also seen him throw his body at them with such fury that he’s missed them entirely.

Still, I think Giordano will find a nice paycheck somewhere in the NFL as a No. 3 or perhaps even No. 2 safety. Of course, that will probably happen late in the offseason after the giddiness of the draft wears off and training camp injuries mount, forcing teams to look for reliable veterans.


Jamie Silva
Numbers: 5106/204/4.78c4.79pd in 08
2008 Stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 3 AT, 9 STT, 3 STA, 3-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 18 TK, 3 AT, 2 PBU, 2 STT
Status: Signed through 2010

The easiest way to understand Silva is to think of him as the anti-Giordano. Giordano was a fairly high draft pick (4th) who had so little college recognition that sites like si.com, espn.com and sportsline.com actually had to cobble together biographies of him after the Colts picked him. Silva, on the other hand, was a household name from his exploits at Boston College, but wasn’t drafted at all. While Giordano runs like a cheetah. Silva runs like a mule. Giordano relies on extraordinary athleticism and toughness to overcome sometimes sloppy technique. Silva has the brain of a supercomputer and uses it overcome his limitations with textbook execution.

Polian compared Silva’s abilities to those of Chad Cota, a slow-footed safety who played and even started for his teams in Carolina and Indy. The results were up and down. As a rookie, Silva’s only real playing time on defense came in yet another meaningless Game 16, again against the Titans. In it, he played a pretty decent game against a bunch of Tennessee scrubs, but didn’t distinguish himself. He could grow into an okay defender if he uses perfect positioning and anticipation to overcome his speed limitations, but that’s not the kind of bet I’d put much money on.

More likely, his future is as an intense Steve Gleason-type special-teams guy who only plays on defense in certain package like goal-line situations or exotic blitzes. But for that to happen, Silva is going to have to cut down on the needless penalties that plagued him as a rook.


Brannon Condren
Numbers: 6007/208/4.47pd in 07
2008 Stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 3 STT with Miami Dolphins
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 25 TK, 1 AT, 1 TFL, 2-41-0 INT
Status: Unrestricted free agent

I’ll have to admit I was confused after the Colts cut Condren last summer, keeping Silva instead. Condren was a 4th-rounder the year before and, although he didn’t distinguish himself as a rookie, he certainly didn’t embarrass himself either. Then, in the preseason, he played like a man possessed. He was hitting like a fiend and always seemed to be around the ball. He made some mistakes, but c’mon, your No. 5 safety is all about potential, right?

The Colts didn’t think so. They opted for the much slower, but more accomplished Silva. Condren was picked up by the Rams, and when things didn’t work out there, he signed with the Dolphins. After getting cut by them, he wound up on the Colts’ practice squad.

So where does that leave him now? Well, he’s still a fast, hard-hitting young man who’s much better in zone coverage than man and is a so-so tackler at best. The similarity to Giordano is uncanny.

He has the advantage of being familiar with the Colts defense, but that didn’t help him last year. And he’ll be facing the same set of guys (except, in all likelihood, Giordano) who they preferred to him last year. For him to make the team this year, he needs to prove that either the team made a mistake last year, or he has developed into a better defender than the one they let go.

How this affects the draft and free agency

On first glance, it looks like the Colts are set at safety. After all, they have Mr. Everything in Sanders, a Pro Bowl alternate in Bethea and a competent No. 3 in Bullitt. Even if Giordano goes, they have tough Silva and speedy Condren fighting it out for No. 4.

But if you look closer, you can see some holes in that particular bucket. Sanders is a part-time player. Bethea is fine, maybbe be a titch overrated, but no doubt a competent starter. Bullitt is better off when he’s exposed less, but not bad. Silva is too slow to be counted on, and Condren has yet shown enough to warrant a roster spot on any pro team.

Making matters worse is the fact that Bethea is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after next season, and Bullitt is due to become a restricted free agent.

With so much money invested in Sanders, the prospect of the Colts signing Bethea to a big-time contract are not great. Traditionally Colts president Bill Polian has little problem handing out big contracts to cornerbacks, but is reluctant to pay much for safeties (other than Sanders). Considering the fact that cornerback Kelvin Hayden is likely to cash in big this offseason, the available cap room for the secondary will be even more limited next season.

So if Bethea leaves, the Colts would then have an aging Sanders and Bullitt, who still hasn’t convinced me he can be a full-time starter on the same level as Bethea. And as for the all-important No. 3 position, who knows? And considering how poorly the Colts’ special teams have been, some athletic depth at the position would be a boon.

Polian has a habit of drafting potential replacements the year before a starter leaves — a good example of this is the three centers he drafted a year before Jeff Saturday became an unrestricted free agent — so a young safety or two will probably be added.

Don’t expect to see any action on the free agency front. It goes against Polian’s philosophy to sign free agents of any note unless he’s absolutely backed up to the wall. You won’t see him looking in the windows of the used safety dealer this year.

Instead, they will add through the draft and undrafted rookies. I don’t see them spending a first day pick at the position because: a) they have other holes to fill, and b) they have had some success with late-round and undrafted safeties. If, as I expect, the Colts have nine picks this draft, my bet is that you’ll see two. How about a fifth and a seventh?

Generally, the Colts look for fast, hard-hitting players at the position and — as with every position — intelligence, college production and strong character are also considerations. They have a habit of grabbing unknowns and are not afraid to choose players from small-time programs.

Although it’s way too early to make any predictions — especially since all-star games, the combine and private workouts and interviews are essential to the Colts’ decision-making process — I would offer Louis Delmas of Western Michigan and Alton Dixon of Texas A&M as the type of guys they would definitely consider adding.

Safeties drafted by the Colts since Polian took over

2007 4th round Brannon Condren
2006 6th round Antoine Bethea
2005 4th round Matt Giordano
2004 2nd round Bob Sanders
2003 2nd round Mike Doss
2002 6th round James Lewis
2001 2nd round Idrees Bashir
2001 3rd round Cory Bird
2001 6th round Jason Doering
1998 7th round Corey Gaines

Notes:
• Tyjuan Hagler started at strong safety once (a loss to the Titams). Although the official NFL documents listed him as a linebacker and the Colts and local media have referred to that particular formation as a 4-4-3, it looked very much more like he was playing strong safety to me.
• As the great and profound Gino points out, Utecht actually left as an RFA, so the Colts will get no compensation for him.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Dungy's retirement

I don't expect the departure of the beloved head coach to have much of an effect on the Colts' personnel strategy. The rest of the team's infrastructure is still intact and new coach Jim Caldwell was chosen because of his dogged adherence to Dungy's doctrine.

It'll be the same old Colts. And that's a good thing.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Back in offseason form

Now that the offseason has unexpectedly arrived, I thought it was time to dust off Coltplay and start filing again. Some thoughts:

• In his post-game comments, Bill Polian frequently commented about what an excellent job the Colts defense (especially pass defense) did against the Chargers. That tells me that the first-round draft pick will almost certainly be on offense.

• And it is unlikely to be a guard or center. Polian stressed how well Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard played all year and indicated that the only problems they had came from a lack of familiarity with the league and their teammates. Even if Jeff Saturday is allowed to leave as a free agent (why do you think they drafted three centers last year?), they team will have Pollak, Richard, Charlie Johnson and, after he returns from an injury that cost him the entire 2008 season, Ryan Lilja. That’s four starting-quality players for three spots. Fellow 2008 draft pick Steve Justice will also be in the mix, as will Dan Federkiel, although to a lesser extent. The arrow is pointed up on both Pollak and Richard, with Richard in particular showing he has a bright NFL future. There may well be an interior lineman selected by the Colts in 2009, but almost certainly not on the first day.

• The top pick could be a back. Polian cursed the lack of production from the running game (as well he should have, it was terrible all year) and even called Joseph Addai out by name. Perhaps more telling is that on 3rd-and-1 at the San Diego 38 with the game tied in the second quarter, the Colts chose to run a reverse with tight end Dallas Clark rather than trust one of their halfbacks. So if Addai isn’t the answer, who is? Polian loves Dominic Rhodes, but he played no better than Addai this season, is an old 30 and is also an unrestricted free agent. Colts fans love Mike Hart, but he was slow before he tore his ACL this year. No matter how well he rehabs, I don’t think it would be wise to depend on him at this point. The other backs on the roster are really spare parts.

• Or it could be a receiver. As is common knowledge, Marvin Harrison is nearing the end of his career and is scheduled to make $13.4 million next season. That’s a ridiculous amount of money for a player unlikely to retain a starting position. If he were to retire or otherwise leave the team, there would be just two reliable receivers — Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez — on the roster. Past history has indicated that the Colts philosophy has been to give Peyton Manning as many weapons as possible, so a first-day pick at this position could be looming.

• Other draft priorities? Offensive tackle, as Ryan Diem makes a lot of money and has been declining, while Tony Ugoh is talented but gives an inconsistent effort. Charlie Johnson can play there in a pinch, but they need a big, young guy to develop. Defensive tackle because we all saw how undersized and undertalented the team was at that spot last season. Cornerbacks because neither Dante Hughes nor Michael Coe looks like he has much of a future, and the Colts always draft corners. A dedicated return man would be nice, as will be the usual long-range linebacker prospects and marginally size pass rushers.

• Barring something truly unforeseen, I’m sure Antonio Johnson has sewn up a starting spot on next year’s team.

• Of the Colts’ unrestricted free agents, here are my early predictions (with their percent chance of leaving):

Matt Giordano (90) They won’t pay to keep their No. 4 safety
Tyjuan Hagler (90) Ty’s a good player, but there are no starting spots open, and the Colts consider outside linebackers disposable
Kelvin Hayden (10) They will pay to keep their best corner, and he is a Polian favorite
Keiwan Ratliff (35) He’s a guy you always want to replace, but he stepped up in 2008 when others faltered
Darrell Reid (20) Offers little at DT, but is a special-teams dynamo and a fan favorite
Dominic Rhodes (50) Polian loves him, but he’s about done
Jeff Saturday (75) His replacements are in house and he’ll get big offers elsewhere, but losing him would still be a big blow
Hunter Smith (20) This could be the end of Hunter the Punter as some say, but I doubt it — he’s too valuable as a holder
Josh Thomas (50) Here’s another guy they keep trying to replace, but he keep playing better than his would-be successors

• The Colts have neither gained nor lost any draft picks this year due to trades. Supplemental picks may be few and far between as the only significant free agents the Colts lost last year were Jake Scott and Ben Utecht . I'm thinking a fouth and a sixth.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Preseason follies

A little late, but here are Coltplay’s observations on the Hall of Fame Game.

In a nutshell: The Redskins’ second stringers are better than the Colts’ fourth stringers.

Quarterbacks
18 Peyton Manning QB
0 games/0 start,
12 Jim Sorgi QB
1 game/1 start, 10-7-66-0-0 passing, 1/6 sacked
5 Quinn Gray QB
1 game/0 start, 2-11-0 rushing, 19-10-160-1-0 pass
13 Jared Lorenzen QB
1 game/0 start, 1-9-0 rushing, 21-12-93-0-1 passing, 2/16 sacked
• Gray clearly outplayed Sorgi — who still holds onto the ball too long and seems afraid to throw past the line of scrimmage. But Gray looked no better than what he is — a quality NFL backup. Lorenzen looked awful with a painfully slow release.
Runningbacks
29 Joseph Addai HB
1 game/1 start, 1-(-4)-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving (1 target)
38 Dominic Rhodes HB
1 game/0 start, 3-17-0 rushing
36 Kenton Keith HB
1 game/0 start, 3-10-0 rushing, (2 targets)
32 Mike Hart HB
1 game/0 start, 4-53-0 rushing, 3-28-0 receiving (3 targets)
30 Clifton Dawson HB
1 game/0 start, 4-7-0 rushing,
35 Chad Simpson HB
1 game/0 start, 2-10-0 rushing, 1-11-0 receiving, (plus 1-15-0 receiving, nullified)
• Addai leaving after two plays raises fears that his college durability problems may return. Rhodes showed more burst than he usually does, but was clearly outplayed by Hart. The rookie looked like Emmitt Smith out there; he was hard to locate and harder to bring down. One more performance like that and I’m a believer. Keith didn’t impress as a runner or blocker and can’t catch the ball at all. Dawson still seems to lack the quicks necessary for the NFL. Simpson ran and caught well and could pass Keith and Dawson if he keeps it up. Surprised and disappointed not to see him on return teams.
Wide receivers
87 Reggie Wayne WR
1 game/1 start, (1 target)
88 Marvin Harrison WR
0 games/0 start
11 Anthony Gonzalez WR
1 game/1 start, 2-7-0 receiving (2 targets)
80 Devin Aromashadu WR
1 game/0 start, 2-28-0 receiving (7 targets)
83 Roy Hall WR
1 game/0 start, 4-31-0 receiving (5 targets)
85 Pierre Garcon WR
1 game/0 start, 4-33-0 receiving (7 targets), 1-1-0 punt return, 1-51-0 kick return
10 Courtney Roby WR
1 game/0 start, 1-47-0 receiving (4 targets), 2-48-0 kick returns
16 Onrea Jones WR
1 game/0 start, 2-37-1 receiving (3 targets)
14 Sam Giguere WR
1 game/0 start
• Lackluster play by Sorgi and Lorenzen hobbled some of the receivers, while having Gray in there helped others. Taken on their own terms, though, I was impressed by Gonzo’s toughness and Garcon’s speed and smoothness. He’s ready to contribute now. Neither Aromoshadu nor Hall looked natural out there, laboring on their routes and working to catch the ball. Jones and Roby remind us why they are in the hunt for spots, but also why they’re not at the top of the list. Giguere was MIA — I still seem him as a practice squadder, though.
Tight ends
44 Dallas Clark TE
1 game/1 start, 3-25-0 receiving (5 targets)
47 Gijon Robinson TE
1 game/1 start, 4-49-0 receiving (4 targets)
84 Jacob Tamme TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (3 targets)
46 Zac Herold TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (1 target)
86 Tom Santi TE
0 games/0 start
• As usual, Clark looked way more comfortable in the slot than in tight. He clearly doesn’t have the kind of rapport with Sorgi that he does with Manning. I’m not angry at the sack allowed by Robinson, but he could have at least chipped the guy. Still, he looked very polished and dangerous as a receiver. I’ll bet we see lots more of him. Herold looked a little more confident than Tamme, but that may not last long.
Tackles
67 Tony Ugoh T
1 game/1 start
71 Ryan Diem T
1 game/1 start
75 Michael Toudouze T
1 game/0 start
72 Corey Hilliard T
1 game/0 start
60 Darren Marquez T
1 games/0 start
Guards
65 Ryan Lilja G
0 games/0 start
74 Charlie Johnson G
1 game/1 start
76 Dan Federkeil G
1 game/1 start
78 Mike Pollak G
1 game/0 start
53 Steve Justice G
1 game/0 start
Centers
63 Jeff Saturday C
1 game/1 start
61 Jamey Richard C 1 game/0 start, 1/1 fumble/lost (bad snap for safety), 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
73 Doug Datish C
1 game/0 start
• The starting line — even with Federkeil out of place at left guard filling in for an injured Lilja — looked competent; better in pass situations than the run. You can tell the coaches love Federkeil. Richard’s debut went from astounding bad to pretty impressive. He can really open holes in the running game. Pollak and Justice also looked nervous at first, but played better as they went along. None of the other backups stood at as particularly good or bad.
Defensive ends
93 Dwight Freeney DE
0 games/0 start
79 Raheem Brock DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
98 Robert Mathis DE
1 game/0 start
91 Josh Thomas DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
90 Jeff Charleston DE
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-4 sack, 1-3 stuff, 1 forced fumble
92 Marcus Howard DE
1 game/0 start, 2 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 1-5-5 sack, 1 hurry 1 pass deflection
60 Curtis Johnson DE
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles, 1-1 sack, 1-1 stuff
64 Ben Ishola DE
0 games/0 start
• Both Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson played hard and well and made strong bids for the 53. Howard, in particular, showed a nonstop motor and appeared unblockable at times. But you know who else impressed me? Charleston. He had a stuff, a half-sack with a forced fumble and his other two tackles were both one yard beyond the line of scrimmage. Thomas also played well, looking stout and spending significant time in the Redskins’ backfield despite facing up against all-everything tackle Chris Samuels. And I loved seeing Brock back outside, where he was quicker than I remembered and looks capable of sealing off those annoying outside runs that have plagued the Colts in recent years. When Freeney returns, the Colts could have an embarrassment of wealth at this position.
Defensive tackles
99 Ed Johnson DT
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
96 Keyunta Dawson DT
1 game/1 start
95 Darrell Reid DT
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackles 1-5 penalty (offsides)
68 Eric Foster DT
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
61 Colin Ferrell DT
1 game/0 start, 1-5 penalty (defensive holding)
69 Joe Bradley DT
1 game/0 start
• As imressed as I was with the ends, I was disappointed in the tackles. Johnson looked solid, but Dawson seemed a bit overwhelmed and should probably be spotted to be effective. Reid looked fairly awful to me, lacking penetration and getting pulled for extra yardage when he wasn’t blocked out of the way. None of the much-hyped trio of Foster, Ferrell and Bradley showed me anything I didn’t already know. It would be great if Quinn Pitcock returned so that Brock won’t have to come back inside.
Outside linebackers
54 Freddy Keiaho WLB
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle
56 Tyjuan Hagler OLB
0 games/0 start,
55 Clint Session OLB
0 games/0 start,
50 Phillip Wheeler OLB
0 games/0 start,
51 Victor Worsley MLB
1 game/0 start, 1 assisted tackle
52 Ramon Guzman OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
49 Jordan Senn OLB
1 game/0 start, 11 tackles
57 Brandon Archer OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
Middle linebackers
58 Gary Brackett MLB
0 games/0 start,
59 Kyle Shotwell MLB
1 game/1 start, 4 tackles, 2 special-teams tackles
• With so many injuries to starters and front-line backups, we had an opportunity to see what the backups had. At best, the results were mixed. People have been talking about Senn’s 11 tackles, but they were 9, 11, 7, 11, 7, 6, 6, 34, 2, 19 and 4 yards downfield. I’m not down on Senn — he was mostly cleaning up other people’s messes and looked pretty good in zone coverage — but have you ever heard a safety described as being “an extra linebacker?” Well, Senn at linebacker is like having an extra safety. Similarly, Shotwell had to deal with a jailbreak inside and stood up better than expected. I like him on specials. Guzman is still lost in zone coverage, Archer takes some funny angles on running plays and Worsley didn’t show me much new.
Cornerbacks
28 Marlin Jackson CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
26 Kelvin Hayden CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle, 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
23 Tim Jennings CB
1 game/1 start, 2 tackles
20 Dante Hughes CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
34 TJ Rushing CB
1 game/0 start, 1-29-0 punt return, 1-23-0 kick return, (plus 1-63-1 punt return nullified), 1 special-teams tackle
31 Keiwan Ratliff CB
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
25 Michael Coe CB
0 games/0 start
37 Antonio Smith CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
39 Brandon Foster CB
1 game/0 start
• The starters looked okay. Jennings was burned early but came back to play a solid game. Hughes didn’t look bad — he really can hit. Ratliff played with veteran savvy, but I still see his lack of tackling ability too big a deficit for him to make the team. Rushing better hope he wins the return job, because his defensive back play won’t. Smith is as good as cut if he doesn’t improve and Foster was invisible.
Safeties
21 Bob Sanders S
0 games/0 start
41 Antoine Bethea S
1 game/1 start
43 Matt Giordano S
1 game/1 start, 1 special-teams tackle
33 Melvin Bullitt S
0 games/0 start
42 Brannon Condren S
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
40 Jamie Silva S
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackle
• I now understand why the Colts drafted Condren. He was a total beast, all over the field. He looked adept in coverage and can hit. I’d say he’d be a future starter if this wasn’t the Colts. Giordano played his usual game, but he could be in trouble if Condren continues to develop and Bullitt returns in time. Silva didn’t look bad, but needs to step it up.
Special teams
4 Adam Vinatieri K
1 game/0 start, 2-2 field goal attempts (24, 26), 1-1 extra-point attempts, 3-157-1 kickoffs (21 return yards), 1/0 onside kicks
6 Adam Crossett K/P
1 game/0 start, 1-1 field goal attempts (28), 1-63-0 kickoffs (19 return yards) 1-53-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 0 return yards)
17 Hunter Smith P
1 game/0 start, 1-56-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 6 return yards), 1-73-0 kickoffs (21 return yards)
48 Justin Snow LS
1 game/0 start
• No complaints. Crossett can kick, but it probably won’t be for Indy. Snow was automatic, and the coverage teams looked very solid for August. It’ll be fun to see how the return job competition works out. I give Garcon the edge because he’s a better receiver than Rushing is a defensive back.

• Three Colts — Charleston, Hall and Garcon — suffered injuries in the game, but none are considered serious.